Happy New Year and Bitcoin Perspective around Geo Politics

Bitcoin remains on a path of listlessness, stuck in a tedious sideways trend. This boredom could be interrupted at any time by statements from the US administration. The political landscape is in lively motion, driven by rising interest rates in the capital markets. This is nicely explained in a great video by Hans Werner Sinn, and perhaps it also serves as a good resolution for the year 2026.

Debt and the massive lifestyle beyond one's means are causing creditors to look at the US with aversion, and of course, the crypto market feels this too. A lack of money in the system acts like a handbrake on constant consumption. According to Mr. Sinn, the tariffs were merely a method to systematically instill fear among creditors. Who else would lend their money for 100 years and receive nothing in return? Only countries driven by fear would consider such a thing, not independent nations like China, for example.

The United States of Europe was conceived even before I was born, and this concept can only be the answer to aggressors from abroad. Whether it's hybrid warfare from Russia or an economic war against the US and China, Europe can only manage this united. Helmut Kohl and Joschka Fischer once conceived the principle. Helmut Kohl wanted a European army first, and then the common Euro, while Joschka Fischer advocated for a parliamentary army in Europe. The principle of democracy could thus be powerfully represented in the world, offering an alternative to autocrats.

According to Sinn, stablecoins are just another attempt by the US to stay afloat and, of course, to save the dollar. The dollar has been on a downward trend worldwide, and many countries have sold off their reserves. Can the virtual dollar stop this trend? I estimate we will see some dollar strength again this year, but the Fed under MAGA will quickly end this recovery, and then it's downhill from there.

The stock markets are naturally high as a kite due to promises of consumer checks and the abolition of interest rates. Bitcoin, however, seems to sense something, because if an incompetent government wants to use the crypto market to hide its own deficits, you can see it in investor behavior. It remains as exciting as ever, and the new year 2026 will definitely not be boring. Here's to a volatile mood under the sails of my algorithms, so that the hangover after the party is at least worth it.

BTC Weak Range BUT...