I was just basing that on this chart published on @steemitblog, and looking at the chart again you are right that it will be less than 25% but still seems to be quite a bit more than 10%. Tough to read for exact numbers but a post with $80+ pending payout is like what, over 400 steem at current prices... so basically as high as the red line shows on the far right of the chart, which seems to be over 20%?