Bitcoin Dives! The Issues of a Low Liquidity Market
Bitcoin has fallen quite substantially in the past 48 hours from $11,600 to roughly $9,750 at the time of writing this. While there have been some headlines today, it appears this began yesterday by hitting resistance at roughly the $11,500 level, a level that Bitcoin has tested multiple times in January, February and now March as well. Now that we've bounced off this resistance yet again, it might be a tempting area to take profit in the future until we break out above 100-day moving average.
There was some news related to some significant sales from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee that could have helped facilitate the market crash back in January and beginning of February. I don't think this is an outrageous claim: Liquidity has been a common criticism of the cryptocurrency space as the amount of cryptocurrencies actually available for trade can be quite different from the supply, and often the available trading supply is fragmented across many exchanges, spreading out the liquidity.
This is a commonly cited argument for why Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are manipulated on exchanges - not only are regulations and enforcement loose, but it also requires a relatively smaller pile of money to substantially change the market price of many cryptoassets.
There are a few other news items I bring up in the video related to the Coinbase Index fund which I don't recommend (2% annual fee and it forces you to hold Bitcoin Cash) along with the SEC statements relating to online trading platforms. They're sticking with their prior statements that these "exchanges" aren't really regulated as exchanges and hence investors should be cautious. The major concern is that massive exchanges with many cryptoassets like Bittrex likely have some securities, although it seems like the SEC is just warning investors right now as opposed to enforcing.
What are your thoughts on the market moving forward? Thank you for watching / reading.
Thoughts on this chart? Someone from Reddit mapped it out. looks like $400m worth of selling may have been what brought the price down from 20k to 6k. It seems strange because the daily volumes are $10bn+ so you would think they could have avoided pushing the market down by spreading out the sells
There's no dark pools in these markets (or at least, none that are liquid enough) so realistically speaking, selling a big lot like that would affect price regardless as other people can see all the orders go through. Add in the fact that liquidity is so fragmented and it's fairly difficult to sell such a huge lot without impacting the market regardless. Also, I suspect a lot of that volume was the same Bitcoin(s) being traded MANY times so it doesn't really represent the true supply & demand situation in the market - a sudden influx of supply would affect price even in smaller lots. Still, smaller lots probably would have made more sense so who knows for certain.
I was looking at this the other day.
Bitcoin Volatility Index
No idea how to interpret this correctly but it might mean that not as many new people 'hodling' and people who cashed out at near ATH or(more likely) one of the dumps have not bought back.
Wouldn't the liquidation of the Mt.Gox coins add volatility to bitcoin? It has stayed above 6% from the start of the year, and with this added it might stay there longer.
More coins on the market might not equal lower overall price but it might mean it will take longer to get up to new hights.
A lot of assumptions here though so I might be thinking about this wrong.
I think the market reacted correctly to the announcement of exchanges needing to be registered as this will limit adoption and access to cryptos in the short term. However, this will be a positive measure to ensure adequate retail investor protection from fraudulent exchanges and scams. It will also increase the quality and security of the exchanges going forward which are needed given news in the past. The exchanges have made enough money to put proper compliance innplace. However, short-term volumes will probably continue to suffer.
Until the issue of regulation is sorted the market will react (positively or negatively) to every statement issued by various regulatory bodies. I agree with you that while regulation, if implemented correctly, will be positive for crypto long term, talk of regulation will probably cause further dips in the short term.
What i think:
Don't buy index funds, do your own research invest in coins you do your research and do your own index fund! And if you buy those index funds where are you going to store them? can they be stored in a wallet like a ledger?
I'm going to stick with my plant, buy what i believe in, which right now is VEN, EOS and NEO ( i like cryptos that give me dividends and that have good companies behind them)
The market moving forward is either going to go up, down or sideways :P JK, i think we will se a stable 9k-11k btc price until may at least and only then will the price increase smashing trough 20k and going right to 40-50k, but this is just speculation which i hate to give
Sentiment is right now cautious I would say and there are probably still a lot of weak hands in the market who sell at any bad news... not because they believe they will loose everything, but because they want to buy back in at lower levels.
Most of the newer participants are getting burned over this strategy. Especially as these kind of drops, could also occur to the upside, because not only liquidity is low, but also supply. We saw what happened with the futures annoucement and that probably had no sustainable positive impact on price, it was just speculation.
However, we need to look at some positive developments, which would sustainable raise the price and value of bitcoin:
There are probably more, which could push the price upwards a lot and once price moves up, the real FOMO will set back in and push the price even higher. Why bother for a 1000$ drop, if BTC could be +30.000$ at the end of the year?
We are going to see another pump in bitcoin. The reasons are:
The blood bath is over for the moment. After Bitcoin fell 10% today, the buyers stepped in at $9400. However, there are stacks of sell orders waiting at $10600. If price is going to start a new leg up, the buyers must overtake the sellers at $10600 first. Thus, my short term target is $10500. I still like the level at $8400 which represent daily demand.
What does daily demand mean?
Daily demand represent a level on the daily chart where there are buy orders. For example, on 4 hr chart, I was able to identify buyers at $9400 as indicated by the yellow circle. The buyers weren't able to get all their orders filled at this level. Thus, when price came back to the level, the remaining buyer orders were filled. This is why price reacted to that level (red circle) and price then went back to $12000. The higher the time frame, the stronger the level. That's why I like the $8400 level more, it represents a stronger buying level. Let me know if this explanation helped at all and appreciate you asking.
@CryptoInvestor do you believe that a 2013 scenario (prolonged bear market and bitcoin to 2600+-) is more likely than not?
Im genuinely afraid to buy bitcoin at the moment
If you are afraid to buy bitcoin, you better leave it. You wouldnt be afraid, if you could loose the money.
I can loose the money, what's really striking me is the resemblance to the 2013 crash. And in that event, one would want out, right?... Would like some opinions about this.
Research the fundamentals.
Next buy is around 2-3k