Bitcoin Bottom: Are We There Yet?

The last 24 hours have seen Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue their prolonged crash. Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $4400 USD. Many cryptocurrencies are down 20% or more in the last 24 hours.

This has investors and traders begging the question "where is the bottom?". For many current investors it may be tempting to sell what's left and walk away. A quick scan of telegram groups I follow has people asking if crypto is dead.

I'm not a trader and don't claim to know exactly where the bottom is in Bitcoin or any other currency. However, I am a long-time investor in all types of investments. Allow me to be a voice of reason. I have seen and invested through several market crashes.

While it's nearly impossible to call an exact bottom, I like to look at history and psychology as a guide. Crypto investing really isn't that different than any other type of investing, only a more immature market. Bubbles like the one we saw in Bitcoin and its brethren last year always crash and crash hard. In a bubble like Bitcoin's ascent to $20,000 I pay attention to an 80-90% drop in price from peak to trough. If the asset survives that kind of drop it's likely investable in that range. Given that, I am watching the $2000-$4000 range on Bitcoin. That's a broad range so I will buy in increments beginning around the $4000 mark.

As I mentioned, I also watch investor psychology. Typically, right before a bottom, it appears that everyone is throwing in the towel. These is the market washing out the weak hands - so to speak. The "smart" money will then step in to pick up the pieces - and make a nice profit. To that point I would say sentiment is really, really bad. My scan of telegram chats shows people are really questioning their investment in crypto. Check your sources - Twitter, Telegram, etc. and gauge the sentiment.

I'm not the person to call the exact bottom. However, I've profited from a fair share of crashes in the past. Using history and psychology can give you a range to scale your investment into.