I don't think the Bitcoin ETF will result in a prolonged bear market like the CME Futures launch
Could the ETF launch mark the top for the current BTC cycle? I think not...
The current market looks very much like a buy the rumor and sell the news event.
We had bitcoin run up to $67k the day of the big launch.
And here we are just a couple days later and bitcoin is barely holding $60k.
That's a drop of over 10% in a couple day span, which has caused some traders to take note of the very real possibility that the current bull market turns into a bear market and buy the rumor sell the news event.
Here's why:
The reason I don't think it will end in a similar fashion to what took place in 2017 is the steepness of the move into the launch.
Back in 2017 we had already gone full on parabolic with tons of leverage.
This time we were trending higher but not vertical and not much leverage is being used.
This leads me to believe we are closer to midpoint in the bullish cycle than we are to a top.
Time will tell of course, but I don't think we are going to see a significant drop from here, I'm looking at the price staying above $50k on the lows.
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