BTC - We are likely just getting started
If history is any indication, this bull market is just getting started.
Everyone has been pretty excited about the move up from $3k all the way to $9k...
However, there is likely a lot more to come.
If we go back and look at the trend since 2010, the bull market cycle have been getting longer and longer.
Not only that, but the price has peaked higher and higher each time!
A lot more bullishness to come?
We likely are at the very beginning of this next bullish price cycle.
Check out the chart:
(Source: https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1134458358814203904)
As you can see, we are likely only about 1/5th of the way into this next bullish phase.
And prices are likely to go a lot higher than even the previous peak of $20k...
If they do not, it would be the first time they haven't during this bitcoin price cycles.
But this time it's not different!
Not sure about you, but I like betting on history instead of betting on "this time it's different".
This entire model changes if bitcoin goes on to make a new low in the next couple months of course, but the odds of that happening are extremely unlikely at this point.
I will keep my money on a trend that has played out several times already likely due to the block rewards halving.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
I'm always confused about how the length of time can be increasing when the cycles all seem to be controlled by the 4 year halfening event. I wouldn't say the cycles are actually even getting longer. We only have 3 data points to go on.
Like we already talked about, I think there is a good chance the peak comes late 2020.
Yep, that is a very good point. That is the one major negative with reading too much into a lot of these patterns. We only have a couple data points to go off of. Not as much data as we would like to have...
I agree that we likely peak end of 2020 or early 2021.
Good comments Doc 👍🧐👍
Thanks corndog.
I'm already picking the color for my lambo, but I'm thinking custom.
What about Bitcoin orange?!
Haha for some reason that lambo yellow always has been appealing to me. Even though normally I am not a fan of yellow. :)
Same here^^. I hate yellow, but my lambo has to be yellow or dull black.
That lambo yellow is purtty...
Bitcoin orange with black stripes would probably look really nice.
Yep, that would look pretty sharp.
With or without a Bitcoin B on the bonnet? ...or is that going too far? lol
I think if bitcoin paid for it, there should be some recognition! :)
Its a flashy, showy car, in the extreme, trying to "tone it down" just has no place in this discussion.
So, a bitcoin B on the bonnet is all about how much you want to promote Bitcoin.
Yep, agreed.
But this time it IS different!
Maybe it will be next time, but i am betting on this time being the actual start of adoption.
It is soooo easy for the number of people in the crypto market to double. And we are still so low in adoption that it may double again after that.
And when the market doubles, that is more than a double in market cap.
If i was actually a good entrepreneur, i would be building out stores to ship anything in exchange for cryptos.
I do not disagree with you, i feel this is just the beginning of this bull run. I just think its going to be bigger than... you know, that depression time before the run up to $20k? It will be a number that is surprisingly big.
There a lot of trends and models that put the next peak somewhere between $60k and $200k. And anywhere in between. :)
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Thanks.
I would agree but if you notice, the rate of change is decelerating at each rally. While I think it will go higher, I really cannot see it to go exponentially like past cycles so no $1 million call from me, maybe not even $100k which still isn’t bad.
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And yes I think the law of large numbers takes over at some point. IE it takes a lot more capital to push up a $200 Billion dollar market than it did to push up a $30 million dollar market.
Darn those large numbers!
I think most would be pretty happy with $40k. I know I would. :)
Thanks for this post. I wrote recently about a Forbes article highlighting how billionaires are quietly buying boatloads of this asset. Something tells me they're learning more in their Bilderberg meetings than the common man is privy to.
Even though Buffett hasn't personally invested, I'm sure his kids and grandkids, etc. have bought up shares for future heirs. Now, that said, the day Buffett announces he's all in on this asset, it will dang-near literally 'go to the moon' for a season.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if he's holding out until these said billionaires buy up enough at current 'low' prices, so they can benefit from this huge pump that would occur...just a theory...just a thought.
Btw, just shy of two years in crypto, I'm still in the learning phase. I couldn't help but notice that on checking my OpenLedger account they have BTC on 'lockdown', just as conveniently done when Steem sky-rocketed a few months back...I really hope this is short-term for maintenance.
Best regards.
Peace.
It would be a hoot for sure. Though, knowing how Buffet picks his investments I don't think he would ever buy bitcoin, unless it started paying a dividend. He's also not a fan of owning gold for the same reason. He likes things that generate cash flows and pay dividends.
Yes, his staunch line of decision-making has cost him much through the years. He acknowledges this, and remains true to his perception of good and bad investments...respected though not necessarily wise.
Peace.
I remember reading about him selling calls on his early investments as well.
Yep and he will be the first to admit he got lucky quite a bit.