You definitely have some solid reasoning. I don't think the closing of Bitconnect helped as a large portion of the market was involved with it (not me!) and they may well be pulling out of crypto to float themselves after losing on Bitconnect.

I agree too that some coins are definitely in a bubble. Utiility, community and a solid team will be what I look for in coins that I thik have long term potential, as well as a working product.