RE: LaBitConf Update- Bitcoin and the CME Futures Market.
Very interesting post. Some ideas from my economic studies at university:
The fact that they don't have real bitcoin doesn't really matter. The future will be negotiated on a regulated and opern market and probably CME volumes will be really better than Exchange volumes. So, in the market, people will psicologically be influenced more by future than by realt BTC. I study economy and this is normal for evry real asset that has a future. Wen you open television and they talk about oil price, they don't say "oil at the saudi oil camp is...." but they say "future's prices are...". So with CME futures some big market shocks can be trasmitted to Bitcoin.
What will be banks-Future relation?
- They will easily be able to short bitcoin shorting the future. This will greatly affect the BTC market (see point 1)
- CME futures will be dominated by trading volumes of great investors and bank, also with hyper-tecnologic methods like High Frequency Trading https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-frequency-trading.asp
So, pay a lot of attention. Surprises are really, really possible.
Hope for the best, prepare for worst :D
That was my original worry. I am not as worried as I was prior to talking to the guys.
I believe that tecnically what you said in the video is correct.
But personally i believe that bitcoin price will be moved by the future market because it will be the merket under all word's eyes.
Then, we also have to consider that future will be based on a index of prices based on exchanges Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken. So the reference market won't be as big as the whole bitcoin market and will be itself easier manipulable than all the BTC market.
PS: you can find official CME announcement with exchange list here http://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2017/10/31/cme_group_announceslaunchofbitcoinfutures.html
maybe you already know the link, but I imagine some users will find this info useful :D