This are indeed the 2 most likely scenario's. I agree, I also expect BTC to go up when a stock market crash happens because investors will look for save heavens and BTC is one of them. I think the current holders of BTC now are the strong hands (because they hold through the 70% crash) and won't sell because of panic in other markets. Maybe some have to sell their BTC because they lose their job or whatever, but I don't think this effect will be big.