Bitcoin (BTC) Analyses 30-8-2018

Summary of today for BTC:
All eyes on the 6800 level! Both Bull and Bear scenario....

Here is my short term outlook as of today:

First of all, for the people who took long profits at yesterday's price levels or opened shorts, congrats! You did very well.

Let's get right into it!....
The RSI on the 4 hour chart is currently in neutral zone wich means we have definitely more room to go down if we do. Tho on the 1 hour timeframe and below the RSI is currently in oversold conditions... this could act as some sort of support as for going sideways for a bit or atleast slowing down the drop. (Give the bulls the oppertunity to fight back)

The MACD on the 4 hour did cross bearish today (yellow circle) which means we have another resistance above our heads to break through. Don't take this indicator to heavy guys as this is a very lagging indicator but it does the job well in showing current trend behaviour!

Volume is still not increasing wich worries me, we definitely want to see a volume increase around the 6800 level (if we bounce, we want to see it with big volume, the more volume, the more strenght and usually the less a move is able to get manipulated). In short: Volume is still like yesterday, shit!

Next up: Support and resistance areas
Here I noticed something interesting, as we all know, we are channeling at the moment but notice how sideways support of the prior wave up (from 5.8k-8.5k acted as resistance) see the big white line... price touched it perfectly and got rejected from there to the downside. Definitely worth keeping an eye on this line if we move higher! (this could create some sort of wedge later on). Currently price is at our big 6800 support level (white dotted line). Here I can see 2 clear possible scenarios. We hold 68xx and try to move up into our fifth wave with a target around 7450 (follow the yellow line) or we break to the downside where our next strong support is between 6350-6500 and finish this move up as an ABC correction (follow the blue line). If we do break to the downside around the 6350-6500 area, this is strong support with lots of volume being traded at these levels aswell as a cluster of Fibonacci levels. (the blue box)

Conclusion:
Both bull and bear scenario are almost equally possible, in my opinion I give bearish scenario a slight edge as we are still generally in a bear market and looking at how fast we dropped on our previous wave up (5.8k-8.5k) it's reasonable to think there is still a lot of fear in the market to go down. Besides this, shorts are decreasing rapidly while longs are increasing but price is not going up wich is also a concerning point. We will probably try to push higher from the 68xx area and then reject somewhere near the 7k once again to the downside. I give bullish scenario 40-45% and bearish 55-60% probability.

If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:

BTC: 1AQ7peEoJPyJxBt8WdyXkHTXTuvYoe4JBZ
ETH: 0x6ed269940d41e5cfb78727b07b74daf08d98b518
LTC: LgumGwWzQ38vE7M6b1BVa3T8tPqSGBPGJL
NEO: AQc8QqhFpVH89ypdGyiXrTQxZqYzujqa4d
BNB: 0x6ed269940d41e5cfb78727b07b74daf08d98b518

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