My expectation for the Bitcoin price
My short term prediction (coming weeks)
Since mid-December last year Bitcoin entered a bearish channel, the orange channel on my chart. We see a couple of sharp drops below the lower band of the channel, but each time the price recovered even more sharply. There was a large selloff going on in the first week of February with extreme selling pressure on high volume on February 6th. I think Bitcoin set a long term bottom at $5920 on this day. I don't expect Bitcoin will ever go below this price again, but no one knows for sure of course. It's just my opinion, no trading advice ;-)
After February 6 we hade a huge rally were the price of Bitcoin doubled to the upper band of the bearish channel. Thereafter, sellers took control in the market again and the price dropped to higher low of $6427 in the first week of April. The Bitcoin bulls tried it again, but failed to break the psychological level of $10,000. Although the price broke the upper band of the bearish trend the bulls didn't manage to set a higher high yet. The good news is sellers didn't manage to set a lower low as well. The bears tested both the upper band of the bearish channel (upper orange line) and the lower band of the uptrend (lower blue line) on the same day, May 29.
If buyers can take control in the market again in the coming days/weeks, I think the first hurdle is the red line in my chart at around $9000. The next resistance is $10,300. It would not surprise me if we are going to test $10,000 again at the end of this month or early July.
My long term prediction (coming months and years)
My chart above is a monthly chart using a logarithmic scale. Bitcoin has actually never been in a bearish territory since its inception. It's a wild and crazy market so bloody corrections are part of it. The dotted middle line is the average Bitcoin price I expect in the months and years ahead. We could even see a drop to the blue line at around $5,000 to remain in a bull trend. The price surge to $20,000 was just insane. A correction was necessary. A lot is possible on this chart, but when we enter the year 2020 I expect a price somewhere between $10,000 (In my worst case scenario) and $120,000 (If the market goes crazy again). I think $35,000 is very realistic if we just follow the dotted middle line. The dotted line at the end of this year marks a price of around $14,300.
Let me know your thoughts...
Disclaimer: This is just my opinion. No trading advice.
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looks nice but at the end you never know... 😔 @peekbit
15k by the end of 2018 would be a healthy point for BTC and overall crypto market.
15k is not a prediction, it's a certainty, and I´m not being optimistic...
I would point to values of $40K to consider myself bullish.
By the way, Bitcoin 150k end of 2018. #justsaying
Interesting Expectation! I think we see at least the 20.000$ at the end of the year an the 50.000 one year later.
I am not much a predictor of price... but I am doing this for a long time. Mostly I consider myself a momentum trader. What you describe here in monthly chart is fairly reasonable. I just wish for wider adoptions... and prices will follow
thanks for the info sir :D
20K-35K seems realistic for the price of Bitcoin by 2020. I am quite sure though we'll see BTC dominance drop under 20% into next year with several of the more progressive alt coins rising above the market cap of BTC.
Mine ones (using logarithmic extrapolation), lets see how they age:
predicted price Dec 31 2018 $14,309
predicted price Dec 31 2019 $45,930
predicted price Dec 31 2020 $147,895
predicted price Dec 31 2021 $474,699
predicted price Dec 31 2022 $1,523,642
So McAfee will have to go to town on his own Sausage?? Yikes!
I completely agree with your analysis but I would add the overall institutional investment situation.
Right now, no single investor has any dought Bitcoin is an asset to have in your portfolio. Maybe a very small part of it, but any professional investor has no dough of the potential of the crypto. This means a lot more money is ready to jump in when the market starts showing a clear uptrend, at least, a lot more than the money pushing the price up to $20K at the end of last year. Add to that new money all the small retail traders wanting to join when they feel FOMO and you have a big new rally.
I have the feeling whenever the market starts pushing up, we will experience a very strong uptrend in Bitcoin and that will push also the rest of the altcoins.
I like your thoughts buddah! i feel like 14,000 -15,000 bitcoin by the end the year is definately feasible..