IS BITCOIN A BUBBLE? WHO ARE THE "EXPERTS" ON THE SUBJECT?

This "bubble" opinion has been in the news for months, promulgated by everyone that claims an audience; from the owner of a sports team to Instagram celebrities and the guy next door. (I was his audience). Are comparisons to the "tulip mania" and south seas real estate mania even relevant? Let's look at the facts and try to figure this out.

I have been making my own personal predictions of where Bitcoin was going, how high and how fast, since March of 2016.
Yes, I admit to being that "new" to the crypto-currency space. But I do have a long history of investing, which includes successfully investing in so-called "contrarian investing".

Like you, (and everyone else), I have been reading numerous other projections; sometimes by anonymous "experts" being quoted by another writer. Who are these experts? Expert about what? And what qualifies them as experts.

I definitely have my own opinions, and I am interested in what you think as well. However, I think that a longer view of investing, and a look into what makes a market historically, and why it has been proven again and again throughout history that it can be flat out insane to say, "this time it's different," when opining about any given investment. But I DO think things are different, while at the same time.....not so different. My take on it is not really complex. I'm simple, and my analysis of the situation is also pretty much simple. (maybe insane)

It has always seemed to me that people are successful financially in a variety of ways, but that all share some basic characteristics. There are those who gained financial freedom by virtue of being born in the right family, at the right place and time of course, and were blessed by someone's forethought and generosity. Others have been just plain lucky.

Most people have an area of personal expertise. It's usually a very strong insight into just one area, maybe two if they are very blessed. Their strongest area could be financial, (investments, business, etc.), or more personal, like relationships and family and the like. In my opinion both are valuable skill sets in life, and even more so when combined in the right ways, with the right marketing of course.

What I consider to be most unfortunate is when such people think that because they have achieved success in their "area," they then think they are qualified as being experts in all other areas of life. Even more unfortunate is the fact the we, as in you and I and the rest of the world in general, also think they are qualified....or at least listen to them, when they spout off on certain subjects.

For example; when actors or actresses, and singers or other performers; talk politics or health care or how to deal with some other threat to our way of life. I'm not saying they are always wrong, and they could be right, (as even the proverbial broken clock is right twice a day). I am saying that we should be skeptical of what people say regardless of "who' is saying it. Yes; me too. I am more than just aware of my capacity to be as wrong as anyone else could be, as I have said for decades that, "as a human being it is my right to be wrong."

That being said, I do think that what I am about to write, here to you, is correct. I do have some experience with investing in various markets successfully, and will give some examples, although clearly that past is no indicator for the future.

My lifetime of investing has been extensive and somewhat diverse, but always in the context that it was never my priority. I was married at a very young age and had children pretty much immediately; and that was the center of my focus; the marriage and the children, in that order. Many of the investments I wanted to make, or the businesses that I would have liked to start, had to take a back seat to the kid's schooling, (private schools), or dental braces, etc. But I am not complaining. Nor will I ever complain; (I hope and pray).

I am of the belief that was expressed in the book, "Farmer Boy," (by Laura Ingalls Wilder); where the Wilder boy was being instructed by his father about the value of virtues like honesty and responsibility, "tell me son; when does a man have to be thanked for doing the right thing?" Although investing was an important part of my life, there were many other things that I numbered as 'more important'. While the quote applies here, as an explanation of how I conducted my life with regards to priorities, it otherwise might be good subject matter for a different article.

I have invested in Real Estate, stocks, futures and business and done well. Just a couple of examples; in the end of December, of 1974, I bought stock for $1.60 a share that I sold 15 months later for $9.50 per share, and it peaked a couple weeks later at $10.25 then went down. I was 21 years old when I started buying, and continued to buy it all the way to $7.50, working as a loader operator in a lumber yard. It was May of 1976 when I sold out and bought Real Estate and Gold. I should say MORE Real Estate since I bought the first house at 19 and continued buying so that in 1976 I was buying my third property. At that time I told everyone who would listen, that Gold was going to $300 to $400 an ounce FOR SURE, and maybe even $500 or $600. Now, context is important here, because at the time the previous ALL-TIME - HIGH for Gold had been $189, in December, 1974. So to make this outrageous price projection was considered absolutely insane at the time, even if you did not consider the fact that 20 different financial publications during that year had stated that, "Gold was dead". Yes; even The Wall Street Journal had printed the headline that said,"$189 Gold a Fluke; Never Happen Again."

And yet in three years Gold was $420, and then later peaked at $850. Huge move, that was underestimated even by me and my "insane" prediction. I won't go any further into my investing history except to say that it was fun, exciting, and oh yeah; profitable. I was young and dumb, I suppose; but right as rain. I learned to read when I was 2 1/2 years old, and had an old set of encyclopedias to entertain my interests. I started with financial and investment books when I was seven. My uncle told me when I was nine, that "you make your profit on something when you buy it, because if you buy right your profit is locked in, and you can sell it to anyone for profit, yet still be giving them a good deal."

Later on in life I learned to rephrase that as; "all things have an intrinsic value and a market value, that are not always equal. When the market value falls below the intrinsic value, you buy for a good price. Then, when the market value begins to move to catch up with the intrinsic value, you can have huge gains fast. Sometimes, you can hold out until the market value is actually more than the intrinsic value; and then it's time to take the money and run. When in my early 20's I used to call this "road money," because I would get it and go. This principle applies in spades to Real Estate. You buy when the economy is in "stagflation. The market value will be below the intrinsic value. That is the situation I predicted in 1999 as "short stagflation, in the next few years, followed by the biggest run up in Real Estate that we have seen in 30 years." And that was true also.

For the last year and a half, I have been telling people that would listen; that they could get rich way faster and easier then I did it the first time. ( I made it, then lost it, made it and lost it. But I lost my fortune over and over...not doing stupid things, but doing what a man should do....like the Farmer Boy above; like raising 4 kids alone as a full time single father, homeschooling, etc.).

The message I have been repeating since March 2016; is to buy Bitcoin, and other crypto currency.

You see; it's different "this time." But it's the same too.

It's different like the computer is different from the Abacus; but from the first inception the computer has had many changes over the decades, made huge new companies, though some are now old, and some no longer exist.

So different in so many ways. But yet the same, as in money, which has had various forms.

All the various differences from the way things have been, and are, is what makes it interesting and at the same time valuable as an asset. Many innovations from the past have gone through changes over the years, but still remain viable today. Such as Henry Ford's invention of the "assembly line" method of manufacturing. It started in the USA and spread all over the world. Whether it's robotics doing the building, or a garment factory in the Philippines; it's still being used...in it's current form.....by people who don't know it started with Ford, or never even heard of Henry Ford.

But Crypto Currency is technologically superior in so many ways to other currencies or payment systems it boggles the mind. And compared to Real Estate it has far more liquidity, and less upkeep, requires less knowledge and it seems the profit potential is way greater.

The big recession that occurred in 2008, was not because "Real Estate will crash and it will hurt the economy," as Peter Finch famously said....and was crowned a guru forever. It was because credit was suddenly tightened, which crushed Real Estate and then the rest of the economy. It was the same in the Great Depression when credit tightened and everything crashed. (Strangely enough, from what I understand, was that Joe Kennedy had a net worth of one million dollars, which grew to ten million within a year.) By the way, I noticed that in around March or April of 2008, Peter Finch also said that "Gold will be $5,000 before the end of the year." I said, "no way." He was wrong; I was right. But again, every human being has the right to be wrong; even Peter.

But think about this; the current boom in crypto has nothing to do with credit availability. That is so very very different from booms of the past; like the roaring 20's or the real estate boom currently, or just before 2008.

In December, 2016, I read that a bean counter, or number cruncher; had said that Bitcoin had 120,000 users in 2013; and that number would be 400 million users by 2030. Hmmm. Something's wrong with that number. Since it was 6.5 million users at the start of 2017, and projected to double every year; the number of 400 million should be reached by 2003; if I figured that right. But, as I told my lovely wife at the time...and she patiently listened, (I finally remarried almost nine years ago); the number of people becoming new Bitcoin users was accelerating. Indeed it was reported that Coinbase added 100,000 users in only 3 days in July, 2017. I have staked my reputation, with my gorgeous wife anyway, that the price of $400,000 per Bitcoin is probably now 4 years away; or less.

This begs the obvious question, "how much should I be willing to pay to acquire some Bitcoin?"

I think a target of $400,000 is reasonable, as an intermediate target. I was thinking of it as a target to sell, but now I think it's just a good target to be exchanging for other goods, like Real Estate in South America, or a space flight, or a good Mocha Latte. I would consider it good buy all the way to $8,000 each; up to include $15,000 or so. And that is because I consider 20 to 40 times my money to be a good gain.

I am making a confident projection of $400,000 per bitcoin, and I believe that is not the ceiling, or a bubble. How high will Civic be by then, or antshares NEO; is anybody's guess. Your guess, or my guess, is as good as anyone's. Let's put our money where our mouth is, and not expect a Thank you, just for doing the right things.