Why Bitcoin Will Hit $150K in 2026 – Or Crash Below $40K: My 5 Key Indicators
(My 5 Brutally Honest Indicators That 99% of People Are Ignoring Right Now)
I’ve been trading and analyzing Bitcoin since 2016.
I was there at $3K in 2018, $69K in 2021, and $108K last month.
Right now, in December 2025, Bitcoin is sitting at ~$104,000 and everyone is screaming “$200K by Christmas!”
I’m not here to cheerlead.
I’m here to show you the 5 cold, hard indicators I personally watch every single day — and exactly what they’re screaming for 2026.
If 4 out of these 5 flip bullish → $150K–$200K is basically guaranteed.
If 3 or more flip bearish → we’re going back to $30K–$40K faster than you can say “cycle top.”
Let’s dive in (charts + on-chain data included).
Indicator #1: The Trump Liquidity Tsunami (Already Started)
Trump’s administration officially begins January 20, 2026.
World Liberty Financial (his family’s crypto project) already has $2.1B in commitments.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill is scheduled for vote in Q1 2026.
→ Historical data: every time a major government or corporation announced BTC treasury plans, price ran +80% in the following 90 days.
Current status: GREEN – Extremely Bullish
Indicator #2: The ETF Netflow Death Cross
BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark have absorbed $41 billion in 2025 alone.
But here’s what nobody is showing you:
Weekly inflows have dropped from $4.8B (October) → $1.1B last week.
The last time inflows slowed this hard while price was near ATH?
→ May 2021… 3 weeks before the 54% crash.
Current status: YELLOW → Flashing Warning
Indicator #3: The Dormant Supply Shock (Biggest in History)
19.9 million BTC have now been unmoved for over 1 year — the highest ever.
Old whales are NOT selling at $104K.
Exchange balances just hit a 7-year low (only 11.7% of supply).
When dormant supply spikes like this during bull markets, the next leg is usually violent.
→ 2017: +900% move after similar pattern.
Current status: DEEP GREEN – Insanely Bullish
Indicator #4: The Retail FOMO Meter (About to Explode)
Google Trends “Bitcoin” score: still only 41/100 (peak was 100 in 2021).
TikTok mentions of #Bitcoin are down 68% from 2021 peak.
My Uber driver still hasn’t asked me about crypto.
Translation: retail hasn’t even shown up yet.
When they do? That’s your $150K–$200K fuel.
Current status: GREEN – We’re Early
Indicator #5: The Hidden Realized Profit Wave
Right now, long-term holders are sitting on $178 billion in unrealized profits.
The last two cycles, when unrealized profits crossed $150B, LTHs started distributing within 60–90 days, triggering massive corrections.
We are literally 2–3 weeks away from that distribution phase unless something changes.
Current status: RED – Danger Zone
Final Scorecard (As of December 2, 2025)
Indicator 1: Green
Indicator 2: Yellow
Indicator 3: Green
Indicator 4: Green
Indicator 5: Red
3 Green, 1 Yellow, 1 Red = Still Bullish… But on Borrowed Time
My Personal Prediction for 2026
Next 3–6 months: final parabolic leg to $140K–$160K (retail FOMO + Trump policies)
Then: 50–70% crash to $40K–$55K when LTHs finally cash out
Bottom sometime in late 2026 → new bull market in 2027–2028
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Drop your price prediction for December 2026 in the comments — the wildest realistic guess gets 100% upvote + 50 STEEM from me personally! 👇
#bitcoin #crypto #blockchain #btc #steemit
(Charts & sources in the comments below — Steemit won’t let me embed 10 images here 😅)
What do YOU think — $150K or $40K first? Let’s argue in the comments! 🚀🐻