A comparison of the 2015 breakout with the current one

Late June 2015 bitcoin broke through the downsloping resistance line. It was not much of a breakout. Some rise in volume can be seen, but nothing spectacular. Prices retraced quite quickly to complete a wave ii pattern. After which they continued forming a wave iii, iv and v. Volume did rise nicely during wave iii.

The completion of encircled wave 1 took from January 2015 until June 2016. So, about a year and a half to get from $152 to $778 (roughly times 5). Then prices dropped into encircled wave 2; which bottomed in August 2016. By the way, the last halving occurred in July 2016 (the vertical red line).

And only then, from the August 2016 bottom, the exponential rise of bitcoin began. Climbing from an August 2016 low of $465 to the December 2017 high of almost $20,000 (roughly times 40). Which was even less than a year and a half.

The breakout we're seeing now looks relatively similar. There is some increase in volume, but nothing spectacular. I've drawn a conservative Elliott Waves projection, a more detailed chart (daily) given below, mainly to illustrate that we can move up slightly until October 2019 after which we may just as well drop to current levels or below.

Keeping in mind that the next halving will occur in May 2020, we may stay in these larger Elliott waves 1 and 2 patterns for over a year. While this might be slower than most of us like, it also means this is a perfect time to seriously increase your bitcoin holdings.

Consequently, I am dollar cost averaging into bitcoin and therewith increasing my position. Although, I am not very strict in the sense that I buy every Sunday of every first day of the new month as I do try to pick low points following above projection.

However, it must be noted that the above projection is very conservative since the 2015 encircled Elliott Wave 1 went times 5 in price. If the same were to happen now, this would take the top of encircled wave 1 to (5 x 3100 =) $15,500. To be followed by an approximately 50% drop to $8,000 and then times 40 to arrive at $320k.

Hmm, what a pleasant thought that is. By then, I will exchange some BTC for gold and wait for prices to drop to more acceptable levels. To, let's say 80% off $300k = $60k, where I'll exchange my gold back for bitcoin and do it all over again. Yes, there are few things as pleasing as calculating yourself into unmeasurable prosperity. Which, next to affirming your own undisputed genious, confirms your success as a human being and softly massages your ego: you were right all along. Now, the only thing missing is for reality to catch up.