Nvidia first 5T company

Wow!

1. NVIDIA’s market capitalization has leapt from $500 billion to $5 trillion in just four years and four months. We often call a “super stock” one that does a tenfold increase in ten years — but NVIDIA did tenfold in four. If you measure from the market bottom in the second half of 2022, it’s even faster.

2. It took NVIDIA only 113 days to grow from $4 trillion to $5 trillion in market value, vividly showing how terrifying the “strong get stronger” effect can be when both earnings and market sentiment are surging.

3. Even after such massive gains, NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio is only 56x, and its P/E/G ratio is ≤ 1.0 (depending on how far out you project). In other words, NVIDIA is still cheaper than many other growth tech stocks — across any market.

4. In human history, it’s been a long time since a company focused primarily on B2B business has surpassed all B2C companies in market cap. Apple, a quintessential B2C company, has long dominated the top spot; Google, another challenger, is also B2C. Microsoft has both large B2B and B2C operations, but its consumer side (especially gaming after the Activision Blizzard acquisition) is equally strong. NVIDIA, however, is overwhelmingly B2B (mainly data centers), and most of its growth comes from that side.

5. This situation is reminiscent of the first Nasdaq internet boom in the late 1990s, when Microsoft — though both B2B and B2C — had a higher B2B ratio than it does today. Companies like Cisco, Oracle, and IBM, all B2B tech giants, were also in their glory days. Back then, consumer internet business models hadn’t really proven themselves yet — no one could have foreseen that, a decade later, B2C firms would dominate the capital markets. Now, are we seeing the waltz circle back to a similar place again?

6. The main driver of NVIDIA’s latest surge is the huge upgrade in its shipment guidance for Blackwell + Rubin: a total of 20 million units shipped and $500 billion in cumulative revenue by the end of 2026. That’s 30% higher than market expectations. For a mega-cap company already under intense scrutiny, to beat forecasts this much is truly remarkable.

7. Another major factor: the U.S. signaling willingness to ease export restrictions on Blackwell chips — an enormous boost for NVIDIA. Even Jensen Huang himself had stopped hoping for that, but now investors’ enthusiasm is reignited. Of course, one hand can’t clap by itself — even if the U.S. wants to export, the other side needs to accept — and there are still many uncertainties.

8. Some believe NVIDIA’s investment in Nokia aims to “bring AI compute to telecom base stations,” essentially fusing their technologies so that base stations become the new “frontline of inference computing.” Others tell me this move is as strategically significant as NVIDIA’s 2019 Mellanox acquisition (which brought the key InfiniBand technology). Since I’m not an expert in telecom, I won’t comment — I’m not sure if this is the mainstream market view.

9. NVIDIA’s so-called full-stack AI capability doesn’t just mean it has the complete set of hardware, software, and networking — it means it has a self-contained, closed ecosystem, built not on open, third-party standards, but on its own proprietary, closed, and non-interoperable technologies.
   For example: inside servers, AMD uses standard PCIe for GPU interconnect, while NVIDIA uses its own NVLink; AMD embraces open-source drivers as a core strategy, while NVIDIA’s drivers remain mostly closed; AMD uses standard Ethernet for server networking, while NVIDIA relies on InfiniBand, obtained via acquisition. And of course, the CUDA ecosystem needs no further elaboration here.

10. In fact, without the sudden rise of ChatGPT, it would have been hard to say which model — NVIDIA’s proprietary ecosystem or AMD’s open, standards-based ecosystem — was better. The former offers superior performance under ideal conditions; the latter offers greater flexibility and customer comfort. But when the generative AI revolution erupted out of nowhere, NVIDIA’s “weapons” shredded every competitor. It’s not that AMD or others did anything wrong — it’s just that, first, man proposes but heaven disposes; and second, Jensen Huang is an obsessive — and while most obsessives fail, the few who win, win big.

11. If you had bought NVIDIA at the end of January this year, when DeepSeek had just been released and the entire internet (including some English media) was trashing the company, you’d be up about 80% by now.

12. In early February, while I was on vacation in Vietnam, at least 300 people flooded my social media asking:
    “Didn’t you say CUDA couldn’t be bypassed?”
    “Didn’t you say NVLink was unbeatable?”
    “Getting slapped in the face now, huh?”
    I was really hoping to discuss it with them again — but they vanished completely. This perfectly illustrates that technological progress doesn’t bend to anyone’s will — not mine, not theirs, not even Jensen Huang’s.

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