Dear WhyteHorse:

I can see there is a lot to unpack here, but to start with I would say you have my position pretty well right, so lets agree to agree. When you put the chance of a change from Business As Usual at 1 percent, that matches precisely the number I gave in my keynote at the Local Futures: Values, Action, Leadership conference in Michigan in 2010.

The second thing I would observe is that in the interceding years between that talk, the numerous Mother Earth News Fairs talks, and now, science continues to improve and some rather new and surprising data has come in. The Arctic Sea is losing ice much more rapidly than anticipated, which greatly effects the albedo mechanism; there are huge methane releases both from shallow oceans and from fracking; and the rate at which C concentrations grow in the atmosphere appears to be accelerating even as emissions have plateaued or even declined, suggesting that tipping points are now in command of the outcome, more than human activities. I detail this, and more, in my most recent book, The Paris Agreement (2016).

Lets take your 5 questions.

1. There are no unaffected bioregions, and 50 years is a long time to try to project, but I would say that areas moderated by ocean temperatures, such as coastlines and islands, will be more temperate than mid-continental regions. Sea level rise should be considered, since if sea level equilibrium were already reached for the present degree of warming the oceans would be some 75 feet higher now. A sailboat or houseboat is a good option. Regions retaining somewhat more favorable climate will likely receive more in-migration, despite largely futile efforts by governments to arrest that. Civil chaos is likely to grow. Death becomes cheap. See Orlov's Five Stages of Collapse.

2. Warm climate food production is nothing new. It will expand. What is difficult is the extreme variability. For this reason you are likely correct about more indoor operations. Aquaponics in particular will likely surge. Outdoor wet systems like chinampas and mixed age polyculture food forests are more stable and also can achieve drawdown of legacy carbon at scale.

3. I would not bet on a longer growing season. Note my mention above of variability. Extreme variability. Think killing frost in July in the N. Hemisphere, or January in the S. Hemisphere. Shorter winters may also mean more survival of pest larvae.

4. Wet climate food production is nothing new. Use it to advantage.

5. Loss of pollinators and bad migratory timings is one of the most neglected challenges we will face. The phenological databases at UNC and U-Ariz give some indication of how fast this has been happening. Self-pollinating plantings and other strategies can help but will not entirely mitigate the disaster about to be experienced. Instead of asking how we as humans will cope, we should be asking about how other essential populations will cope.

You mention some useful things to be doing. I recommend taking a permaculture course, meditating, writing poetry, and finding the places sacred to you and honoring those. We may NOT make it out of this. Accept that. Don't take all the blame, because this deal may have come signed and sealed before you were born. And yet, there is still hope. And as long as that is the case, acting as though something can be done, and doing it, is what puts a spring in my step every morning, and a song on my lips as I get back to work.