UK proposes 'herd immunity' - Lead the way Johnson!

in #covid196 years ago

So the UK government updated its COVID strategy yesterday. They plan to:

  1. Get the old and sick to cut themselves off from the rest of society as much as possible ('cocooning').
  2. Get people who have any illness symptoms to stay at home in their rooms.
  3. But not cancel all big gatherings or shut schools or workplaces, or do other more disruptive things — though this may happen later.

The logic is that this way we can achieve herd immunity among the healthiest people in society, while shielding those with the highest fatality rates. Some reactions:

  1. Obviously some very smart people were involved in developing this strategy so I can't confidently say it's mistaken. Maybe this will turn out to be a great innovation others can learn from.
  2. That said, the response from other experts has been mixed, and it's a different approach than that being chosen by other countries.
  3. I'm not so sure I want to volunteer myself to get sick to help the population develop herd immunity but maybe that's just my selfishness speaking.
  4. I feel the risks are asymmetric here. If we respond too late it may be impossible to stop a sharp peak, ensuring few of the ill can get medical care. If we respond too early we'll have lost some weeks of school, and had to work from home unnecessarily. Personally I'd rather accept the latter to avoid a (decent) chance of the former.
  5. I love the Behavioural Insights Team (Nudge Unit) but I do wonder whether they're being given too much influence over something that may be outside their core area of expertise. I'd probably give more weight to epidemiologists and doctors than psychologists on this one. Their papers replicate at slightly higher rates...
  6. I won't be surprised if we see the UK do a 180 next week, and adopt a policy more similar to that in other countries.
  7. One thing that informs their policy is the suspicion that people will get sick of self-isolation and refuse to continue for more than a few weeks. So they need to pick their moment. I hope this is based on more solid research than I suspect it is. I for one am scared enough I don't foresee having much trouble sticking to my cordon sanitaire, but I may well not be typical.
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Thanks for your update on what's happening there. Seeing I'm only reading this now, three days later, there may already be changes in place.

Blessings and stay safe, @meepins.