Dana's current 2018 crypto price predictions and suggestions
This post is not investment advice.
Previously I predicted the high Bitcoin price of $18,000. I was off by a bit but very close. This was the prediction of the high price. I also predicted the current downturn and low floor price of $6000. I do these predictions for fun and nothing I say should be taken as investment advice. 4 months back I proclaimed that Bitcoin is in a bubble. Today I claim Bitcoin is finally at it's true price of around $8000 with it's floor at around $6000.
I do not see Bitcoin going much lower from here and I still see Ethereum rising to $10,000+ this year. This means unless there are some unforeseen regulatory tragedies there will be trillions of dollars which will flow into crypto this year. Currently regulatory uncertainty in my opinion is the only thing slowing down the current pace of growth. This regulatory uncertainty in some cases seems deliberate as the IRS keeps the tax situation confusing even for accountants and then of course there is FINCEN, SEC, etc, and this is just in the United States. In Asia there is also regulatory uncertainty with the ICO bans, the threat in South Korea to raise taxes (capital gains), etc.
In my opinion capital gains taxes on crypto trading slows growth and serves no other purpose or function. It does raise money in the short term but at the cost of the long term. Which is to say it discourages trading perhaps so much that less tax money is received overall than what could have been received. The issue of people not being willing to pay their taxes in my opinion is a matter of ignorance. People believe if they ignore the tax authorities that somehow it will go away but the truth is that for people who want to pay our taxes there isn't an easy smooth process to do so. Capital gains only adds cost to accounting and complicates the situation (I experience this first hand).
Bitcoin and Ethereum each in my opinion will achieve trillion dollar market caps at some point in their lifetime. I predict Ethereum will reach this achievement first due to the fact that Ethereum developers are working on scalability and on improving it's use cases. It is true that arguments can be made to show that Ethereum has issues with smart contract security but I do not think these arguments will prevent money from flowing toward ETH. I do think for ICOs and projects on top of ETH it is going to be very difficult to guarantee security under the Ethereum architecture even if scalability problems can be solved this year.
My price predictions for this year:
Up to 3 trillion dollar global market cap for all crypto.
$10,000+ ETH.
Increased clarity in regulation.
For all who want to see these predictions happen faster the suggestions below may be counterintuitive but I believe them to be appropriate.
- Support regulation of the crypto markets. These regulations should be sensible and effective for reducing risks. These regulations should do no harm and also promote long term sustainable growth.
- Support regulated ICOs in particular. Too much bad press and money lost in scams will not attract more money to crypto. Promote the idea of regulating certain kinds of ICOs which involve securities and leaving other kinds of ICOs unregulated by the SEC but instead use technological means. When technological means are not available then use traditional institutions like the SEC.
- Support projects which seek to improve scalability.
- Support all projects which add utility and allow participants to earn crypto rather than buy.
When we have clarity in regulation the uncertainty goes down. This will in my opinion attract trillions of dollars to this space. Tax clarity will attract actual usage of crypto. Scalability will enable the infrastructure to support the increased usage. Higher prices for BTC and ETH will be the result and it will not take as long as people might think for this to happen.
Trying to figure out a consistent, workable approach to tax in this space is a fucking nightmare.
I’d vote for the idea that the government could probably do better off exempting crypto from taxes ‘to stimulate innovation,’ invest in a basket of the top tokens/projects which they could best utilize in building out great solutions, and earn their “tax” via the gains as the use of these technologies expand...
You should move your assets to a country like Netherlands where there are no capital gain taxes ;) much more easy
You would have to renounce your citizenship and then why would the Netherlands give citizenship to a US citizen assuming Rok is a US Citizen?
It's not that easy.
Canadian.
I'd much rather jump through the hoops of figuring out a strategy to minimize taxes and just pay a fraction back to the country, with gratitude for all the benefits in this country...
I find it really crazy people do pay taxes over capital dividents ... I find this a form of theft. Specialy in the US where most TAX go's to the army :s why people still accept this???
Always good reading your predictions and content.
I also follow your predictions of a 10K ETH ... and regulations will also be good I forsee.
Check out my pies on regulations would like to hear your feedback. https://steemit.com/regulation/@deobrands/classifying-and-regulating-crypto-assets
Would love to hear your views on the recent G20 talks @dana-edwards
I do rais my concerns on gas price and toxic debates on keeping the gas limit per block low so there is no miner centralization ... I hope we all agree gas limits per block should not be limited and ETH blocks should scale else we can see a similar split off like we have seen with Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Cash
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Latest Lightning release offers fragmented payments which might be a partial solution of anonymous bitcoin transactions. If this will justify, we can start seeing money flow from privacy coins to bitcoin again. This could give it a real boost.
The lightning network does not work ... they now have bold claims about a mainnet launche but the relay problem and maby other problems have not been solved. I really loved Bitcoin before Bitcoin Core took over now I'm using Bitcoin Cash wich is much better at this moment
It is not like it does not work at all. There are plenty of tutorials how to run a lightning node and make payment over lightning network. Maybe just some problems are not yet fully solved.
I agree that 2018 is going to be a big year for the crypto market. I expect to see a huge amount of institutional money flowing into the space that will the propel the market higher. The corrections this year have not been pleasant, but were necessary for the long-term health of the market. Nothing goes straight up forever and the market was up huge last year. Even though I expect the overall market and quality coins to go up this year, the truth is there are a lot of scam coins out there that I believe will suffer severe price corrections and many of which will go to zero. Again, that's a sign of a healthy market.
The one area where I have a different opinion is in the price of ETH. Ethereum is popular for issuing new tokens, but the network is slow and cannot handle too many transactions at a given time. I know the developers are working on fixing that, but it's not clear at this time how that's going to be done. Until Ethereum is able to scale, it will not be a viable platform for enterprises and will serve a niche market. Stellar is much faster and has the capability to also issue tokens.
I hope ETH can go up big but I'm not convinced at this time.
poverty kills young children's dreams, nice post ,i upvoted and followed
Good publication I do not know if I should take your predictions seriously or not but I will believe in the very detailed analysis of the behavior of cryptocurrencies. I appreciate the effort.
Keep this up, Followed you for more :)