Will crypto turn bullish again if inflation goes down?

in #crypto2 years ago

Do you remember what happened in 2020 and 2021, at the height of Covid? Inflation kept speeding up, but stocks and crypto kept growing. Investors believed that buying these assets protected their wealth from depreciation.

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However, at some point the correlation turned from direct to inverse. The inflation rate was creeping up, but stock prices finally started falling, together with commodities and crypto. The main reason is that the Fed finally passed from words to action and began raising the interest rates. This process isn't done yet, and nobody can say when the rate hikes will stop.

Still, it's worth making a forecast for the next couple of months at least. The June inflation data (91%) is already outdated, as noted by Joe Biden himself. He meant that inflation is now actually lower: June probably marked the peak of annualized inflation in the US.

Everything points to the start of a recession in the United States. As commodity prices fall and the demand from businesses and individuals decreases, inflation will slow down.

What will this lead to? Well, the Fed will surely tone down its hawkish rhetoric. It's not in the Federal Reserve's interest to keep scaring the markets. And if the flight of capital out of risk-on assets ceases, the main question will be: what's cheap right now? The most obvious answers are tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, such as BTC and ETH.

Is Bitcoin at $20,000 cheap? This was the peak of the last bull market that ended at the start of 2018. Since then, enormous amounts of money have been printed in the world — and the crypto audience has grown by several multitudes.

Will our prediction come true? We'll find out soon enough — perhaps in the 3rd quarter itself.

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