Bitcoin demand turns positive again while liquid supply tightens
Bitcoin's supply trends hint at recovery after months of steady selling. A key metric, apparent demand, has gone positive for the first time in three months. Price stays stuck in a range. Institutional buying remains careful.
In short:
Apparent demand shifts from -141,000 BTC to positive. Long-term holders keep over 15 million BTC despite ups and downs. Exchange reserves drop by 500,000 BTC. This cuts liquid supply. Spot ETFs see $993 million in outflows. Yet on-chain buying picks up. Bitcoin's base shift? Apparent demand tops zero.
Apparent demand sums net buying over 30 days against new mined coins. It now sits at +1,200 BTC. This flips from late December's low near -140,000 BTC. Net buying has swung around 141,000 BTC in the last two months.
This low reading beats past booms. Still, it shows buyers taking more than miners add. From December to early February, prices fell from $90,000 to $60,000-$70,000. Negative demand marked steady sales then. Now positive, sales ease before any big price jump.
Apparent demand compares new coins to long-term holder changes. Negative means new supply overwhelms buyers. Prices weaken then. Positive means buyers take more than miners make. Supply tightens over time.
Long-term holders hold steady. Their supply nears cycle peaks above 15 million BTC. Volatility and ETF sales have not cut it.
Past patterns show long-term supply grows at low prices. That means buying. It falls in rallies. That means selling. Now it stays stable. No big dump.
Other signs back rising demand:
Buyers top new supply over 30 days. Long-term stacks hold near highs amid swings. Exchange stocks keep falling. Liquid supply shrinks. Price has not bounced. Buying happens under the radar.
Exchange reserves fell from 3.25 million BTC to 2.75 million over a year. That's 500,000 BTC pulled out. Late price drops did not flood exchanges. No panic sales.
Lower exchange supply plus positive demand squeezes liquidity. This sets up for price jumps. Timing stays unknown. Price just holds steady now.
Whales soak up ETF sales as price sits flat. ETFs lack fresh cash. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $993 million net last month. Assets under management near $85 billion. But new buys stall.
On-chain buying comes from whales, long-term holders, or private deals. Not ETFs.
Data points to a shift from late sell-off to early restock. Proof needs steady positive demand and steady ETF flows. For now, it fixes the base. No fast growth yet.