Can Bitcoin still rebound before the second quarter of 2026?
Bitcoin faces one of its toughest stretches in months. Close to half its supply trades at a loss. ETFs drain billions. Miners and long-term holders stand firm. Is this hope? Or denial before the bottom?
Bitcoin boxer rises. Explosive orange glow. Cracked ring. Bright 2026 counter. Tense drama. Fierce battle. Strong hope.
Quick facts.
About 43% of Bitcoin in circulation sits at a loss.
NUPL drops to 21.30%. This signals broad surrender.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2.17 billion in outflows since early February.
Miners hold BTC. They skip sales. AI work brings in cash.
Warning signs flash.
February 2026 hurts Bitcoin owners. Analyst GugaOnChain from CryptoQuant shares tough on-chain data. Now 42.85% of supply loses money. NUPL hits 21.30%.
BTC shed almost 28% in the last 30 days. It trades 46% below its peak of over $126,000 from October 2025.
These marks echo hard times. XWIN Research says the fear and greed index sits at 8 out of 100. That level hit only in 2018 lows, March 2020 COVID drop, and November 2022 FTX fall. Market mood feels like a real crash.
Institutions pull back too. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $2.17 billion net since month start. Outflows sped up when price dipped under $60,000 on February 6.
CoinShares reports $3.8 billion yanked from crypto products over four weeks straight. Sector assets under management hit lows not seen since April 2025.
Trader bets show pain. Santiment notes deep negative funding rates on big exchanges. Many push hard for more drops. Fear drives loss hate and crowd follows. Caution rules.
Signs of fight back.
Market dips hide strength. Some data points to grit.
Long-term holders grab 380,104 BTC in 30 days. No panic. They know cycles. Buy in blood, as the old line goes.
Miners match this. They keep BTC instead of selling for costs. AI services pad their income. This helps them hold.
Michael Saylor of Strategy shows the way. Price fell over 50% from peak. Still, he buys 1,142 BTC for $90 million. Company total now 714,644 BTC worth $49.3 billion.
World splits by place. U.S. sees $403 million outflows. Germany, Canada, and Switzerland bring big inflows. Not everyone shares U.S. gloom.
Bitcoin shakes hard now. GugaOnChain sees no bounce till Q2 2026. Yet big players—miners, holders, Strategy—hold tight. They skip sales. In old cycles, this quiet stand led to sharp turns.