Grayscale believes Bitcoin could break new records in 2026 despite the recent pullback
Bitcoin prices tumbled hard after peaking in early October. This sharp drop scared many investors and traders. People now worry about a major crypto slump stretching into 2026. Macroeconomic issues combined with a slowing rally worried many observers.
But Grayscale Research sees things differently. Their new report pushes back against this fear. Grayscale says Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs next year. This offers a much better view of the market's future.
The common idea is that Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. This cycle ties directly to the supply changes every four years. Historically, these periods meant big price gains followed by steep corrections. Grayscale analysts argue this cycle is now broken. Bitcoin has not seen the typical huge, fast price jump this time. This shows new market forces are running the show.
Investment patterns have really shifted lately. Old retail trading platforms are mostly ignored now. Most fresh Bitcoin money comes from big corporate accounts. It also flows through approved trading funds. This structural change helps positive market feeling. The overall economy looks good too. Think about possible interest rate cuts soon. Also, US lawmakers show wide support for new crypto rules.
Grayscale stresses holding long-term is the key. Forget quick trading strategies for massive gains. We believe the four-year cycle thesis is incorrect. Bitcoin prices could easily reach new highs next year.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat shares this strong belief. He thinks Bitcoin will reach a new high by the end of January 2026. Lee points to a recovering stock market. He also expects a more helpful Federal Reserve soon. These changes should restore trust for crypto investors. Fed actions and market mood are key drivers for further price moves.
Still, short-term volatility remains high. Analyst Ted Pillow tracked Bitcoin's open interest or IO. After the crash on October 10, IO shot up fast. However, traders are now reducing their positions. Pillow says the market must fully stabilize the IO first. Until that happens, Bitcoin will lack a clear trend direction. Wild price swings will continue shaping immediate market action.
The recent price drop and current uncertainty are real factors. Yet, the outlook from Grayscale and Tom Lee projects favorable long-term prospects. Short-term movements will bounce around unpredictably. Underlying factors point toward significant gains for holders over the next few years.