The Bitcoin coin bounces off a floor covered in dollars
Bitcoin pushed past $86,000 again. Yet, the US dollar stayed strong. This is unusual. A strong dollar often hurts risky investments. BTC’s rally ignored this risk. Is this a true bounce back? Or just a technical trick hiding deeper problems?
Bitcoin topped $86,000 even with tough economic conditions. The surprise comes as the dollar hit a six-month high. Job numbers blew past expectations, powering the dollar. Investors hope the Fed will cut interest rates. The Fed’s signals are still confusing. This happy mood might cover up Bitcoin’s core weaknesses.
Bitcoin began the week hot. It soared above $86,000. This followed a big drop last Friday to $80,600. That low was the worst price since April. This upward move happened because of sudden US employment data. The markets reacted fast to the surprise news on November 20. Cryptos and standard currencies both moved quickly.
Here is what caused the jump. The non-farm payroll report showed 119,000 new jobs. Experts only expected 53,000. That is double the forecast. This performance pushed the Dollar Index (DXY) over 100. It reached its highest point in six months. The dollar’s strength usually signals trouble for risky assets. Still, BTC rallied hard.
John Williams, head of the New York Fed, sounded cautious. He said job market weakness is now a greater risk than price inflation. Williams’ speech changed how investors felt. Rate cut hopes soared. The chance of a 0.25% cut in December jumped to 78.9 percent. It was only 44 percent a week prior. This hopeful shift briefly boosted risk assets. Bitcoin was one of them.
Not everyone at the Fed agrees, though. Susan Collins, the Boston Fed president, is still unsure about future steps. This shows internal debate over the timeline for money policy. Bitcoin’s rise improved feelings for a moment. But some experts warn this rise is fake. They see it as a dollar weakness trick, not a recovery built on solid ground.
Analyst Tony Severino is one doubter. He thinks Bitcoin’s October peak was a "B-wave rally." This is part of a standard price correction pattern. Severino points to the BTC versus Gold ratio. This ratio is trending down even with Bitcoin's dollar rally. This lag behind gold suggests a key weakness in the BTC market.
Severino projects this ratio will keep correcting. This could last until early 2026. This timeline matches the Bitcoin halving cycle. These technical charts suggest the current bounce hides a distribution phase. It might even come before a longer price drop. Bitcoin shot back over $86,000. However, the price faces many economic doubts. Analysts remain careful. They see mixed economic data and weak price signals.