Crypto - When Moon?
This is a question I get alot on my weekly radio show - when moon? It's usually meant sarcastically, but in the person still wants to know when the heck crypto is going to start heading up again.
When Moon?
Luckily we actually have a simple answer to this question!
Given that the majority of big cap coins and alts are trading in a relatively similar pattern we do have a pretty clear identifier that must trigger before we can have any sniffs of mooning.
Breaking the range
Let's look at the charts of a few different coins to see what I mean about breaking the range.
We will lead with bitcoin of course...
As we well know, btc is stuck in this range of about 6k to 6,800. We need to break above that range before any potential mooning happens.
Yes, I know. Nothing new so let's look at a few more charts.
Here is Litecoin...
As you can see it is also range bound and we need to see a move above that prior top of 67, but ideally 75 to have price truly "level up."
Next let's look at Ethereum...
Same deal - range bound. That 270 area is really where price needs to surpass for it to get up into the next zone.
Additional Info
As you can see on all three charts we are still a bit below the 200 day moving average. That can certainly be used as a target along with the prior tops and bottoms.
I spoke about this in my last post; eventually price will revert close to the 200 day MA. That doesn't mean price will definitely move highe r, it just means they will come closer together at some point.
Conclusion
Forget about mooning for now and focus on these coins making some positive price moves toward the top of these ranges as right now many of them are sitting near the bottom and at risking of breaking lower, i.e, Litecoin.
Either way, crypto prices have been consolidating in the current range for some time now. We need to break above the range before any dream of mooning.
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Looking ugly with all honesty but I would not rule out a capitulation fall to create a bottom with a subsequent rise past resistance to come back to out normal volatile ranges...
Yeah, the fact we haven't gotten a wash out concerns me. Doesn't have to happen, but usually helps identify a real bottom. We have atleast been basing for some time now.
Just a cursory glance at the charts shows us that the sideways trading is drawing much closer to breaking through the downtrend lines that began last winter. If these can break through that line while range-bound, the chances of at least testing the 200-day MA would increase significantly.
Breaking down at this point, particularly with BTC, would mean a lot more pain ahead for all cryptos. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything positive on the horizon. So we likely won’t see any upside movement unless there’s just some random pumping in the works, which certainly isn’t out of the question.
I think we’ll continue trading sideways for a few more weeks, then likely see another leg down. How far that downward move goes is anyone’s guess, but there doesn’t appear to be much interest in cryptos at the moment.
The one saving grace that we might see: A pre-Christmas pump, but likely just short-lived.
I wouldn’t mind being wrong about any of this though.
Yeah, I hear you on that! Hard to be bullish right now, but a christmas rally is always possible especially given the last three years. I still think we may get some kind of wash out bottom still.
Solid analysis @scaredycatguide
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Nice and simple advice mate and makes me a little more optimistic about my next trade. Hopefully, see you on next weeks show.
did you literally just say, in a complicated way, the price needs to go up before we can moon