Bitcoin Indecision

I've been continuing to follow the BTC market closely and although there has been plenty of pretty good news lately, it has not managed to rebound above the 0.618 fib level, measured from the bottom of the beartrap to the all time high of this pump so far.

Fibonacci time zones indicate that we are indeed at a crossroad and that we can expect a significant change in the nearest days. I am still betting on down, since it has not yet reached the lows of the beartrap, which almost invariably occurs following a double top.

There seems to be no consistent divergences going on, low volatility and a low volume. 1 day candle market structure indicates a weak buy on the MACD. On the contrary the Money Flow Index is portraying a bearish divergence. 1 week candle market structure indicates we are overall still in bullish territory.

Coinmarketcap is still largely showing red numbers on most high ranking coins, which indicates to me that there is a bearish sentiment in the market. It has improved a bit over the last few days, but people are evidently getting out of altcoins to preserve their overall dollar holdings in the case of a price collapse.

Goldman Sachs has recently stated what I have believed for some time,that we will soon see a correction down to the $1800 range. However they also believe in a further surge in the price up to over $4000. If we do compare the former big pumps on BTC, it seems very likely that it will indeed go up to that range, but this pump has overall been a lot weaker, throughout the pump so far. This makes me think that we have actually seen the top of the market. However, I am not outruling the possibility that we are currently in a huge beartrap and that it might go significantly higher.

So my personal conclusion is that this is going down, based on how pumps usually tend to develop. Large bear traps will most of the time exhibit the same structure as the top of a market. If this is the case, we are still going down to about $1800 before a rebound.