RE: When Will You Join the Cryptocurrency Future?
Just be careful, is all. Nothing goes up like that forever. "What goes up, must come down" -
https://twitter.com/dhh/status/935360035755999232
Let's just take the contrary position for the sake of argument - "the price rise you're looking at will continue, perhaps with small corrections here and there, but will basically continue to rise over time."
If that's true, there's no point in owning Apple stock. There's no point in buying a house. There's no point in owning any commodity, currency, or anything. Everything ought to be in Bitcoin. Investing in anything else would be crazy or pointless.
And if that's true? Then there's no more investment into anything else. Everything goes into Bitcoin.
I guess your "success scenario" after that is every commodity, product, service - everything, ever - would suddenly get re-priced into Bitcoin. Because why take a failing fiat currency, when you can take Bitcoin instead? Dollars dissipate in value. Everything ends up in ruin.
But the inflation rate on the US $ isn't particularly nutty right now. Couplea percent per year I'd figure. So that doesn't add up.
I don't doubt you can make a pretty penny on the odd bitcoin here and there. But the graphs look just like the Tulip graphs, or the above-mentioned South Sea Company.
So, just, be careful is all I ask. I love being right, but I don't want to be right on this one, because I know too many people are going to get hurt. I'm hearing things like "Borrowing into Home Equity Lines of Credit to buy Bitcoin" and that freaks me out. Plenty of people will be in financial ruin.
Please at least try and have some kind of backup plan. Because whenever something cannot possibly fail, then it can't win either - if there's no risk, it doesn't make sense that there'd be any reward.
After almost 5 years in the bitcoin space, I now find it funny how many people are so eager to tell me, personally, to be careful. I've already paid off my house and done very well with cryptocurrency. I wonder, are they just trying to make themselves feel better about not getting involved themselves?
I've got nothing but love for you, @uberbrady, and I genuinely believe you care about people and don't want to see them get hurt. I also think borrowing money to buy into a speculative investment is straight up crazy (I told a friend exactly that just a few days ago). That's why I mention FOMO in the post. I invested after getting out of debt and already having investing in traditional ROTH IRA mutual funds for retirement. Maybe I should emphasize that point more because some people are just financially stupid and take irrational risks.
As to
dhhand so many other cryptocurrency skeptics (see this fun reply to patio11 yesterday), I sometimes feel it's not worth our time debating with them. I heard the exact same arguments as bitcoin went up to $100 in 2013 and there was even more volatility (percentage wise) then.It won't go up forever, obviously, but it will go up until it reaches a market equilibrium in perceived value. The arguments I've seen (and linked to in this post) for $100,000 or $1,000,000 a bitcoin seem sound to me. $10,000 is really cheap if those are actual realities in our future.
For me, it's not about the inflation rate of the USD that concerns me as much as the deflation rate we're not seeing. How much purchasing power is being stolen from people because deflation is not allowed? What if this massive spike in purchasing power in cryptocurrency is more of an indication of how much wealth exists as an emergent property of humanity's technological advancement? What if instead of the government cronies skimming all the value off the top, we had a universal basic income powered by the blockchain?
How much would human well-being improve?
Your caution is noted. As I said in my post, I watched bitcoin go from $1,200 to $250 in 2014. That would be like it going back down near $2,000 today. I'm prepared for that, and I agree with you that others should be as well. Diversification is key and not just in the cryptocurrency space.
Nice post! What will happening, if someone resteem your post?
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
I've argued that Inflation (mild, not-crazy) is what you want to see. What Inflation would mean is that 'old work is less useful than new work.'
What deflation means is that 'old work is more useful than new work.' It rewards the old, and punishes the new. Deflation punishes debtors, and rewards lenders. The 'haves' get more, the have-nots earn less, and find their debt harder to pay off.
Example: I borrow 1000 'credits'. I'm earning 10 credits an hour. Over time, the currency deflates. My boss says, "Hey, I'm only gonna pay you 5 credits an hour now, your purchasing power will remain the same." It's now harder for me to pay down my debt. Meanwhile, the guy I borrowed from, the amount I owe him (in terms of purchasing power) has now doubled.
I think you're talking about a paradigm where "work" still has meaning, and I'm thinking about a future of automation and AI where most human beings will be unable to compete to provide value. I also think debt can be a form of slavery, and it keeps the poor in poverty. If people want to become rich, they have to do things rich people do which includes saving, investing, and not borrowing at high interest rates.
You added the "My boss says..." part which, to me, changes the entire equation significantly. I don't think people realize just how messed up the whole system is because we've been living with a manipulated currency since the 1971 Nixon shock. With more purchasing power, why couldn't workers (however many may still fit that category after automation and AI) instead say, "No thank you, I'm not going to take that job at that rate because a blockchain UBI takes care of my needs and my savings (small though they may be) will sustain me and grow in value. If you want me to work for you, you'll have to compete by offering me higher wages."
Financially, both for society and individuals, do you think incentivizing borrowing is better then incentivizing savings and investment?
I am also grateful to those who tell me to be careful when buying bitcoin. The more the merrier! Someone was telling me to watch out because crypto is “really volatile”. They had just heard my pitch and wanted to save my bacon. I’m not sure if they will look into bitcoin any time soon.
“The old model of trusting someone else (like a stock broker or a bank) to make your decisions is falling away. We have to take personal responsibility for our actions.” @lukestokes that was a fantastic comment.
Thanks for listing out your success with crypto investments. I bought into the idea of crypto when people discuss the deflationary value of fiat currencies. The reality is most legal currencies are worth nothing and the ones who have authority makes the rules as to it does. Bitcoin and a host of altcoins will prove them wrong.
Honestly everything is a bubble investment, but to actually earn a living and have life changing experiences through financial gains is worthy of the risk. I personally think whether or not bitcoin will pop soon would not matter to you because you already gained the finance you need to survive on. I hope to follow the same path with conviction.
Too much news and data in today's world that can easily impair one's judgement. But the reality is to all those who are on steemit we are in a revolution together. Discussions of why we invest in crypto is a key reminder that we are all in this overall crypto revolution. Whether the outcome is good or bad is for us to decide. Lets bring the best out of mankind through the use of crypto.
LikeTulip bulb mania? Didn’t Jamie Dimon say that? I just checked out the tulip bulb mania bubble. Seems that at the time a tulip bulb came to be worth more than a house.
So if the forecast is that the price of bitcoin will replicate that, we have some way to go. Of course, it depends on whose house we are talking about. I hope it’s Buck house where our dear Queenie hangs out.
Really enjoyed your post, I am one of the stupid ones who know nothing about how it works. But what you wrote make a lot of sense to me.