Fanduel NFL Week 4: TEs to Target

Ownership % is from linestarapp.com for the "$150K Thu NFL Rush ($25K to 1st, Thu-Mon)"
PO = Projected Ownership
AO = Actual Ownership
Only the highest PO players are listed.

Chalk (should score high points, will have high AO%)
Travis Kelce - $7400 - 11.18% PO

• Kelce has a better match up then Ertz and a higher ceiling on most days and Sunday will be one of those days. Washington is allowing TE's to average 13.3 FPPG and 83.3 YPG. Kelce already has had a 20.3 pt game against the Eagles in Week 2. Can he repeat it against another team in the NFC East?

Pivot (a riskier chalk play that should have a significantly lower AO%)
Zach Ertz - $6900 - 12.35% PO

• As the 3rd highest price TE this week Ertz also has the highest PO. But when you also have the best floor of all the TEs in the league that will happen. Ertz is only averaging 1.6 pts less per game than #1 TE Rob Gronkowski but at $1600 cheaper. Ertz doesn't have a friendly match up with the Charger in an away game, who are only allowing TEs to get 5.7 FPPG. If Ertz' PO wasn't so high he would easily be in a Fade category but he's been consistent. Let's see if he can do 4 weeks in a row.

GPP (should be a lower AO% that has a chance of scoring 2.5X-4X their salary in points)
Cameron Brate - $5300 - 1.33% PO

• The Giants are giving up the 4th most points to TE's this season and Brate is coming off a 4 catch game for a TD. If rookie OJ Howard can stay out of Brate's snap and target %, Brate can be lined up for another 10+ pt day.

Fade (typically a good match up and/or projected to have a good game; avoid at all costs)
Hunter Henry - $5600 - 1.36% PO

• Match up against the Eagles who allowed Travis Kelce to torch them in Week 2 = check. Potential to put up 10+ points any week = check. Consistent TE who is a focal point of an offense = hell no. Henry has scored 0 FPPG in weeks 1 and 3 of the season. I can't take a chance of getting a goose egg from a guy that is priced at $5600.

Contrarian (typically a bad match up and/or projected to have a bad game; has upside to do the opposite)
Charles Clay - $5300 - 2.19% PO

• Atlanta hasn't given up a TD to a TE this season but is still hurting on the defensive side of the ball with MLB Vic Beasley out. Clay has 5 red zone targets this season which is due to the lack of reliable pass catchers in Buffalo. With his emergence as a threat in the passing game this should be another solid week from Clay.

Sleeper (low AO% player that should get 2X-3X point value based on salary)
Jimmy Graham - $6200 - 2.75% PO

• Jimmy has had another ineffective start to the year until last week. He had 11 targets for 7 catches and 72 yds and follows it up against a weaker defense in the Colts. Graham and WR Doug Baldwin are both questionable on the injury report but if Baldwin sits and Graham plays, we could see a big day from the TE.

Bargain (< $5000)
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - $4800

• Jenkins returned from suspension last week and helped the Jets offense flourish against Miami with 5 catches and 31 yds. TE is a position that is typically TD dependent and if Jenkins is going to be useful he is going to need one this week. And this week the Jets face a tough Jacksonville defense. Despite how good their defense has been this year, covering the TE has been a weak spot as they have allowed TE's to average 14.8 PPG. If you need a punt player for TE, Jenkins offers some good upside.