The Argentine economy until 2019
An interesting view of the prestigious English newspaper that a couple of months ago made fun of Macri for gas rates.
ECONOMY
The Economist anticipates an average annual growth of 3% for Argentina until 2020
A report by the influential British media highlighted the reforms of the Macri government to leave behind the "distorted macroeconomic policy." It also forecasts a sharp decline in inflation
By Juan Gasalla September 13, 2016
The Argentine GDP will approach USD 700,000 million by 2020, with one-digit inflation. The Argentine GDP will approach USD 700,000 million by 2020, with one-digit inflation.
A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit, the business unit of the The Economist group, highlighted Argentina's sustained growth potential for the next few years and estimated that the national GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3% until 2020. The influential British publication highlighted the reforms of the government of Mauricio Macri to leave behind the "distorted macroeconomic policy" and reduce inflation to one digit in 2019.
The study accessed by Infobae anticipates a growth of 2.7% for 2017; 4% for 2018; 3.2% in 2019 and 3.4% by 2020. Meanwhile, he calculated that in 2015 Argentina's economic expansion was 2.4%, followed by a contraction of 1.6% in 2016.
"The position of Argentina in our business environment classification improves considerably between the historical and projection periods. The weak historical classification reflects the inheritance of distortionary and expansionary macroeconomic policy, together with a deterioration in the legal and regulatory framework," he said. study.
Regarding the inflation rate, which today represents one of the main challenges for the administration of Mauricio Macri, The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated it at 26.5% annually in 2015, with a ceiling of 42.8% accumulated in 2016. However, it expects a noticeable slowdown for the coming years: 23.5% (2017); 13.6% (2018), to place it at one digit in 2019 (9.4%) and 2020 (7.9%).
"The Macri administration has undertaken the elimination of distortions and, in many areas, such as currency control, the results have already been achieved," said The Economist's report.
"Depending on their pace, scope and successful implementation, such reforms could be the preliminary work for even greater improvements to our business environment classifications, but there is also a risk that the implementation will be less successful than we currently assume, leading to poorer results than expected, "he warned.
For The Economist, Macri's reforms "will return the economy to sustainable growth"
In an overview, President Macri predicts the persistence of economic measures that will rebalance production and return the economy to sustainable growth. However, The Economist observed a "process of adjustment" that involves the application of "politically unpopular austerity measures that will sustain in the short term the risk of social unrest and strikes by powerful unions."
In that sense, The Economist emphasized that Argentina will face years of high fiscal imbalance. He pointed out that the primary deficit of public accounts was 4.9% of GDP in 2015 and that it will expand to 4.9% at the end of 2016. By 2017 the fiscal red will be reduced to 4.3%, to continue in decrease in 2018 (-3% of GDP), 2019 (-2.8%) and 2020 (-2.4%).
The report also gives a focus on the evolution of the exchange rate in Argentina, one of the most volatile and unpredictable variables not only for investors, but for the inhabitants themselves. Thus, after a dollar for foreign trade that averaged $ 9.20 in 2015 and stabilized at about $ 14.90 this year, after the exit of the "stocks", The Economist anticipated a dollar at $ 17.10 on average for 2017 , with a gradual upward evolution in the future: $ 18.80 in 2018; $ 20.40 in 2019 and $ 21.80 by 2020.
He also pointed out that currently "the rebalancing of the economy subjected to economic activity in 2016, but sooner or later it will have some beneficial impact on net exports."
"The efforts of the Macri government will also address the problem of legal and regulatory uncertainty, which should begin a stage of renewed growth in consumption and private investment, to sustain an acceleration of GDP growth," the report said.
The Economist calculated the size of the Argentine GDP in dollars, one of the most adulterated variables during the INDEC intervention in the previous government. With a significant exchange delay, it stood at USD 632.2 billion in 2015, with a fall to USD 524.200 for 2016, due to the double effect of the strong devaluation of the peso and the real fall in activity. In 2017 the GDP will grow to USD 585,200 million; to USD 629.2 billion in 20
