This is the Conference Board's future recession probability model.

This is a forward-looking model unlike the one I shared earlier from FRED that modeled current recession probabilities. This model in contrast looks at the probability of a recession over the next 12 months.

So while the probability we are currently in a recession is only ~1%, the probability we will enter one over the next year is ~96%.

Fwiw, this generally is what the Conference Board is forecasting. They expect we will enter a recession in 2023. However they expect it to be relatively mild and short-lived.

This model relies on the Treasury yield curve, the Leading Economic Index, the National Financial Conditions Index, and the Fed's balance sheet.