EOS - One epic distribution / things to consider

The EOS distribution is already epic, yet it has only just begun. We are on only day 4 of a 351 day, partially blind auction. At the current rate of donation, EOS is projected to have a market cap of approximately $3 billion. Although a test net is set to go live in the not too distant future, that is a lot of money for a project with no product so far. Having said that, the development team behind EOS, led by Dan Larimer, are beginning to get the recognition they deserve. The unparalleled capabilities and utility of Steem and Bitshares can attest to that.

http://eosscan.io

Is a very useful tool which shows an excellent summary of the overall distribution situation.

So what does it all mean? What is a fair market price for 1 ERC20 token from the EOS distribution Ethereum contract? This is what a lot of people are asking and attempting to discover. I can tell you now, I don't have a clue. My expectations have already been proven incorrect and there is so much that is presently unknown.

Here is a list of considerations that I am trying to bear in mind, perhaps they can be of some use;

• EOS is not yet proven tech, though Dan Larimer's track record is highly promising.

• Should EOS succeed, it could out-compete it's main rivals and many blockchain use cases in existence today could be replicated within EOS and displaced.

• Despite the best efforts of Block.one, there is a distinct lack of due diligence happening with regard to the EOS distribution mechanism. FOMO (fear of missing out) is high and the spreading of FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) is quite rampant. Efforts to disseminate the truth are ongoing.

• The dynamics of the blind auction and secondary exchange market will attempt to find a fair price for the EOS ERC20 token as efficiently as possible, (the fairest way to accomplish that yet devised,) but there are many factors that could effect it in the end.

• Traders like volatility. Buying low and selling high can be extremely profitable. This market is likely to be susceptible to multiple influences and remain quite volatile.

• It is possible that market participants and prices will be periodically manipulated via software interfaces, exchanges or even network performance.

• Some market interfaces may break down through demand or bugs.

• EOS will launch a test network in the near future.

• News of EOS development progress will begin appearing.

• The wider debt-based global economy looks highly unstable.

• An increasing number of countries seem to be in the process of legitimising cryptographic blockchain tokens, potentially bringing huge additional demand to the market.

• Every day that goes by, more EOS ERC20 tokens will become available to the market. edit - added

• Citizens of the US are not presently able to participate in the EOS ERC20 distribution.

• There may be an as yet unknown competitor to EOS.

• In order to sustain the current average price levels for EOS ERC20, millions worth of ETH will need to be donated every day.

• A buyer with next to unlimited resource may come into the market at some point.

• Ethereum's current market price may change significantly or the relative values of any of the tokens within the crypto market. It will be interesting to find out what Block.one will be doing with all the ETH they accumulate.

As you can see, there is a lot to consider and this is probably not even the half of it. Please add other important considerations that I've missed into the comments.

So what do you do if you are interested? Make sure you read and understand everything on the EOS.IO website! You are responsible for you own donation and investment desicions. Remember, there are significant risks due to so many unknowns, never commit what you cannot afford to lose. Be wary of anyone who tells you what the price of anything will be in the future.

Best of luck.

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Happy Steeming