Fantasy Championship Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (NFL Week 17)

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I've made it through to my Fantasy League's "Super Bowl" this weekend, and writing down my thought process as I think through the lineup. At the time of publishing, I had already (fortunately) left Xavier Worthy on the bench, who went for a whopping 0.10 points.

QB: Justin Herbert over CJ Stroud
Herbert helps Keenan Allen hit incentives?
Keenan needs to go 7/26/2 to tier out on his contract this season, and I wouldn't be shocked if he did it, at home, in front of thousands of adoring fans. Keenan is an OG possession WR and I could see him easily going over 10 targets in this game with at least 4 being in the red zone.
(I see no incentives for HOU and feel the narratives are overly fearful toward Texans D). I'm selling HOU D high here and rolling with Justin Herbert. I also give Harbaugh the coaching edge.
*it looks like Derwin James will suit up for LAC.

WR: AJ Brown and Mike Evans
Buffalo wind gives me pause and last second tinkering could change this, but AJ has had 5 consecutive double-digit performances.
Evans picked up where he left off as Baker's favorite target. In this warm weather matchup, I expect more of the same.
*My other available WRs are

  • suspended (DK - PIT)
  • had a third-string QB throwing to them against a good D (X. Worthy - KC)
  • coming off a big week and have another WR with seniority going for incentives (Q. Johnston - LAC)
    If I were to rank my expected LAC WRs by expected production this week, I'd say
  1. Keenan Allen 2) Ladd McConkey 3) Quentin Johnston
    ...and Orande Gadsden (TE) might even beat out Quentin

RB: Ashton Jeanty and Jonathan Taylor
W/R: Travis Etienne Jr.
W/R/T: Rhamondre Stevenson
I'm starting all the RBs I have this week, and tend to prioritize them later in the season as WR production drops off in colder weather.

TE: Kyle Pitts over Colby Parkinson
Parkinson could've had more points without drops last week.
Pitts is the only TE in Atlanta. Parkinson is part of a committee, which allows him to be hidden if prop bettors eye a bounce back performance. Even without TDs, Pitts gets volume.

D/ST: this one is giving me fits.
I'm not sure about TB D in Miami, nor SF D v CHI.
While I could see SF D turning Caleb into a 🎃, it's a risk as CHI is firing on all cylinders.
I may pick up NYG D against a hapless LV offense and hope for Jeanty TDs and Geno INTs.
*I've just picked up/started BAL D against a questionable QB situation in GB, and dropped SF D.