AUDUSD is slowly creeping back up to .8000. Today is still relatively early in the forex week and we also have AUD Red Folder News coming up on Wednesday at 7:30pm CST.

Bullish Scenario

We are currently looking at a retrace to roughly .7900 before the move back up. This will retest not only the prior high (noted by the horizontal black line) but also the well respected trendline as well.

Bearish Scenario

We also do have a bearish scenario in mind for when the momentum will shift more into a seller's market. To clarify, right now we are in a small countertrend retrace play. Price always has to correct itself (no matter how minor) before a strong trend continuation move.

The same area that we are looking at in our bullish scenario, if price BREAKS .7900, then the selling momentum will truly begin. Not only will we have broken structure, but a trendline as well. Of course price can simply just fake out, whipsaw all the premature traders out the market and spike back up so what we will do in this scenario is simply wait for the RETEST of .7900, watch for bearish candlestick formations and ride that sell down! :)