If FTX Was Still Here: The $43 Billion "What If" That Could've Made Creditors Whole (and Then Some)
Hey Steemians, crypto degens, and anyone who's ever lost sleep over a bad trade—or in this case, a total exchange implosion—let's talk about the ghost that still haunts the blockchain: FTX. It's been over three years since Sam Bankman-Fried's house of cards came tumbling down in November 2022, wiping out billions in user funds and turning "effective altruism" into a punchline. Fast-forward to today, and while the bankruptcy estate is finally coughing up some repayments (we're talking $1.6 billion in the latest round back in September 2025), creditors are still getting shortchanged—pegged to 2022 dollar values while crypto moons. But here's the kicker that's got everyone rage-scrolling: what if FTX hadn't collapsed? What if those juicy stakes in Robinhood and Anthropic were still sitting pretty?
I stumbled across this mind-bending clip from a podcast featuring former FTX engineer Gajesh Naik (shoutout to https://x.com/gajesh for the raw recount), shared by the always-on-point https://x.com/sracha. It's a quick 27-second gut-punch set to the eerie Death Note theme—because nothing says "crypto tragedy" like anime OST. Gajesh lays it out plain: FTX held a 7% stake in Robinhood and a 10% stake in Anthropic. If those hadn't been fire-sold in the bankruptcy scramble, they'd be worth a cool $43 billion today. That's not pocket change; that's enough to pay out five times what creditors are owed.
(Screenshot from the clip—two podcasters mid-deep-dive, with that ominous "IF FTX STILL WAS THERE" overlay. Pink walls, mics, laptops... the vibe screams "we're unpacking your trauma.")
The Quick Math on the Missed Billions
- Robinhood Stake: FTX/Alameda scooped up about 43 million shares back in 2022 for peanuts (relatively speaking). Robinhood's stock has been on a tear with crypto's resurgence—trading around $40+ per share now. That's ~$1.7B back then, ballooning to $7.6B today.
- Anthropic Stake: The AI darling? FTX's 10% slice was dumped for under $1B in the panic sell-off. Anthropic's valuation has exploded to $183B (hello, AI hype train). That stake? $14.3B in 2025 dollars. Add in other gems like Solana holdings, and SBF himself is out here on X claiming the whole estate could've been solvent 136 times over if left to ride.
But here's the bitter pill: the bankruptcy lawyers and estate managers sold everything to "maximize recovery" and avoid more risk. Noble in theory—grab the cash now, distribute it safe and steady. In practice? They locked in 2022 prices while Bitcoin hit $100K+ and AI stocks went parabolic. Creditors aren't getting the upside; they're getting IOUs valued at collapse-era rates. As of November 2025, total distributions hit ~$7.8B so far, with more trickling out. But for crypto claims? Reports say recoveries could dip to just 9% of original holdings when adjusted for today's prices. Oof.
Why Don't They Pay Up? The Real Tea
Look, FTX is paying—kinda. The plan kicked in January 2025 after court approval, with small claims ($50K or less) getting priority. But:
- Payouts Are Frozen in Time: Everything's calculated in USD from Nov 2022. Your 1 BTC claim? Valued at ~$17K then, not $100K now. No appreciation for you.
- Assets Were Liquidated Fast: Those Robinhood and Anthropic shares? Gone to fund immediate distributions and legal fees. Hindsight's 20/20, but holding could've turned lemons into a lemonade empire.
- The Fraud Factor: SBF's crew commingled funds, used customer deposits for wild bets (Alameda trading, anyone?), and yeah, straight-up embezzled. The estate's clawed back ~$16B total, but it's a fraction of the "what if" windfall.
- Legal Drag: Ongoing fights over claims reductions ($1.9B slashed in August 2025 alone) and KYC hurdles mean not everyone's cashing checks yet.
If FTX had survived the run (or, y'know, not been a Ponzi-lite), those stakes alone could've made it a phoenix—rising from the ashes to dominate TradFi-crypto bridges and AI plays. Instead, we're left with this alternate-history fever dream. Gajesh nails it in the clip: "That alone would have paid out five folds to all creditors." Five folds. Imagine waking up to that notification.
The Bigger Crypto Lesson (Because We're All in This Together)
This isn't just FTX shade—it's a wake-up for the space. DYOR on custodians, self-custody your keys, and remember: centralized exchanges are glorified IOUs until proven otherwise. Platforms like Steemit? Decentralized, community-owned, and (mostly) rug-proof. If you're a creditor still grinding through the dashboard, hang tight—more drops are coming. And if you're building the next big thing, don't pull a SBF: transparency or bust.
What do you think, fam? Would holding those assets have saved FTX's rep, or was the rot too deep? Drop your takes below—let's unpack this rabbit hole.
Tags: #ftx #crypto #bankruptcy #anthropic #robinhood #sbf #steemit-crypto #web3
(Embed the original clip here if posting on Steemit: https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1994110171728224256/vid/avc1/480x270/rFgUrYmo7Wd0ORwR.mp4 – full thread via https://x.com/sracha/status/1994110241227853958)