RE: Luck vs. Skill - Why steemit and poker have a lot in common and luck is a predictable driver.
Thank you my friend @knircky! Who else could talk about playing poker? :-)
You said that it´s part of the 'job to understand that such variance is part of the game and needs to be handled and managed.' Do you think the variance on steemit could be handled and managed in a similar way?
Getting back to your example (my 'steemit career'): I guess you are right, while I have had a lot of successful publications lately, some of my articles still don´t comply with the quality demands of a certain target group and die poorly. But how could we minimize variance? There is few information we do have about circumstances like active users and their profile. If we knew better the target group it would be easier to deliver... But well it´s also part of the game to not have these details :-)
I think some of the variance just has to be accepted.
All we can do is play our cards as best we can. In steem this means all we can do is write content as best as possible and then we need to accept that sometimes the content won't get noticed.
Likewise we must be careful not to overreact to our successes, because just like our misses are often likely negative outliers the last big hit might represent a positive lucky hit.
We cannot control when big whales login and read our articles and we cannot control what they like or don't. So I think there has to be variance in how we will be rewarded.
That sounds absolutely logical to me.
I guess that a constant improvement of skills will help us to keep the variance low, but it will be always part of the game. We can learn both from failure and success, trying to not overrate extreme outliers on both extremities.
Talking so much about poker, I would love to drive to the casino RIGHT NOW! :-))
I have to play 15 more h to hit my 500h per year goal and also have a $ goal I am very close to that I want to hit.
Still have a few days :-)