HUI June 12 2017 - The Battle for 195.60

For the fourth day in a row the HUI ended down closing at 195.00 off by 1.30 points (0.66%). GLD was down $0.18 (0.15%) closing at 120.36. SLV was down $0.24 (1.47%) closing at 16.04.

I posted on Friday that I would be watching the 195.60 mark in the HUI. For the first part of the session from open until 11:30 on a 30 minute bar the battle raged. Each 30 minute bar found 195.60: 9:30 closing on 195.69; 10:00 high on 195.62; 10:30 high 195.66; 11:00 ranged from a high of 196.15 and a low 195.02; 11:30 high of 195.67. Finally on the 12:00 bar breach with the HUI posting the days low of 193.54. From there the bulls mounted a counter attack carrying the HUI back above 195.60 to a high of 196.12. At the end of the day the bears pushed the counter attack back for the close of 195.00.

On the daily chart for the HUI it does not look good for the bulls. Both stochs have come out of overbought and are heading down and no where near oversold. MACD looks like it wants to turn negative but has not done so yet. The bears appear to be winning the battle for now. For the bulls, nothing much to say except this is now four days of selling and it was a valiant charge from the low of 193.54 back above 196. I am however reminded of the words of Tennyson "Half a league, half a league half a league onward into the valley of death.." On an intra day basis if the bulls can take out 196.12 then we may have a counter trend rally for one or more trading sessions. For the bulls to recapture the market on a daily basis the last high of 204.55 needs to be taken out, an objective that gets farther away with each session. However, in the gold stocks a 10 point move can happen at any given time. For the bears, take out 193.54 then down to any of the following objectives 190.34, 185.03 and 181.84 (there are more but since we are still in the midst of the battle for 195.60 lets leave that alone for now).

I expect an important low for the HUI within the next six sessions, but for now clear downward bias.

GLD on a daily basis is looking very bearish with both stochs heading down and a rollover in the MACD. The only positive I see is that the close was higher than the open which sometimes can mean a counter trend rally (1-3 trading sessions) is about start. GLD would have take out 120.685 (today's high) and sustain that through the session then it might be possible. I am not looking to go long here unless we get a complete reversal back up to 123.31.

SLV still ugly. Just ugly. fast and slow stochs down MACD crossed over nothing here but ugly.

Nothing on the charts from today's action changes my view that we are still a few more days away from a reversal, sometime late June to early July. The time frame I am looking at is between June 19 through July 14 I am looking for an important low in the next few sessions followed by a decent counter trend rally that will define the start levels for what I believe will be an excellent move higher in the HUI this summer. With that said I am not looking to get long just yet.

These are just my thoughts like to hear yours.