HUI June 14, 2017 Yup the Bear awakens

Over my past few blogs I have mentioned that I was expecting a counter trend rally in the HUI. A counter trend rally can last one to three days. Please read yesterday's blog because today's action tracked the numbers I outlined yesterday. I also stated that I would not be going long on this rally. I have stated that I believe that a change in trend is coming and possibly very soon. I am looking for a significant low in the HUI and a change in trend from June 19th through July 14th.

Today the HUI closed down 6.67 (3.4%) at 189.60. Today's action range was a high of 200.27 to a low of 185.54, now that's volatility. On the daily chart the fast and slow stochs are down and the MACD is also down. Today the HUI posted another outside bar this time down. Again outside bars are tricky but must be respected. For the bears today was a great day, momentum was regained and the close is below 190.34 ( see yesterday's blog).

Recently, I speculated that I expected the counter trend rally and that it might last into the Fed rate announcement. Yesterday I listed several numbers to watch on a 30 minute chart. I stated that I would watch how the market would react to these numbers for any weakness to see if the counter trend rally would end. Two of these numbers were 198.21 and 198.84. Prior to the fed announcement the market was all over the place with none of the listed numbers being hit in any significant manner until the 1:30 bar. At 1:30 the high for the HUI was exactly 198.2182 (not bad). The 2:00 bar, just as the Fed announced the interest rate hike, opens at 198.68 which was also the high of this bar short of 198.84 that was the signal of weakness and marked the end of the counter trend rally.

For the bulls I got nothing for you perhaps hope. The battle line is drawn at 190.34. Today was a huge downside movement often there is some bottom fishing that can lift the HUI above 190.34. For the bears, a push to 185.03, 181.84 and even 176.18. (ouch). For now the battle on a daily basis is at 190.34 with the bears fully in charge.

GLD closed down $0.66 (0.55%) at 119.82. Fast stochs are down and now oversold. Slow stochs are down but not oversold. MACD is down with no indication of positive divergence in sight.

SLV closed unchanged. Yesterday I mentioned the potential for a rally in silver if the HUI and GLD rallied. I also mentioned two gaps in the chart that might be filled. The highest gap was at 16.37 that formed on the low of June 8, 2017. Today SLV had a high of (drum roll please) 16.37 gap filled. Fast and slow stochs down and oversold. MACD down. For the bulls I got nothing for you. Oddly enough for the bears I dont have much for you either. There is one more gap down at 15.47 that formed on the high of 5/11/17, but that is way below today's close and I am not convinced that SLV is going to revisit this level but time shall tell. In fact this level 15.95 would be a great level to go sideways and hold, but I dont know only time will tell.

I hope that by posting those numbers yesterday that at least you might contemplate what it means. Everyone who went long this am was convinced that the HUI and GLD were going to the moon today. It did not. So do markets move on a random walk or is there a mathematical order that reigns supreme in time and price in the market. It has been written, "to everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven." Makes me wonder.

These are just my thoughts. I would like to hear yours. Please up vote.