HUI June 28, 2017 Step Right Up Every Hand is a Winner and Every Hand is a Loser
The HUI was down -0.14 points (-0.08%) with a close at 189.30. On the daily chart the fast stoch is down and out of overbought territory. The slow stoch is down with a negative crossover. MACD is flattening and remains in negative territory.
GLD was up $0.09 (0.38%) with a close at 118.90. On the daily chart the fast stoch is heading down. The slow stoch is flat with small negative crossover and remains in oversold territory where it has been since June 16th i.e. full imbedded. MACD is still in negative territory with no positive divergence.
SLV was up $0.13 (0.82%) with a close at 15.92. On the daily chart the fast stoch is still rising. The slow stoch maintains positive crossover and is now out of oversold territory. MACD is rising but remains in negative territory.
Today in the HUI the Bears were clearly in charge from the beginning. The Bulls opened the HUI at the high for day at 190.68 and immediately the HUI fell for the next hour into the low of the day at 187.19. The Bulls were not ready to capitulate and pushed the HUI back up to 190.07. From there the HUI remained range bound between 190 and 188.55 with the final close of the session at 189.30.
Yesterday the following Bear short term target numbers were posted:
191.51
190.66
189.89
189.3
188.28
186.68
185.04
184.06
182.32
These numbers are calculated based on the 30 minute charts and are used to determine if there will be a change in trend; essentially is it time to exit or enter positions based upon how the market reacts to hitting these numbers at either the high, low or close of the thirty minute charts. I also posts these numbers to demonstrate that the market is not random but rather orderly. The main benefit is that trades are based upon mathematics rather than emotions. Fear of missing out on a trade is the fastest way to lose money. Losses come with trading but the idea is to have more winners than losers, because every hand is a winner and every hand is a loser. Never bet the farm on a pair of deuces just because you feel it will be a winner.
Today in the HUI there were two hits of these target numbers the first was 190.66 (actual 190.68 - the high of the day) at the 9:30 bar. The second target number was 189.30 (the close of day) at the 3:30 (15:30) bar. Not exactly random movement but rather orderly. The 189.30 level is interesting because it is the 50% retracement mark from the recent "relief rally", see prior posts. The tight range indicates that a move is building and the 50% mark is significant because no one is certain which way it will be. Who has the winning hand the Bears or the Bulls? This churning of the market is common during a change in trend phase of the market, which I believe we are in now. This is a gambler's market with no definitive trend in full force. The overall trend in the HUI has been down since February but are we witnessing a change? I have stated that I believe we are and have posted that the period from June 19th through July 14th is significant for a change and a start of a summer rally.
For tomorrow, the Bears need to take out today's low and press further down on these intraday levels. Time is running out for the Bears to move the HUI down to the daily targets of 185.03, 181.84 and 176.18. The real question is whether the low on June 20th at 183.84 is the significant low and the turn has begun. For the Bulls, not much on today's chart, hold today's low and let the market correct in time and not price.
In GLD not much on the daily chart saying buy me. In fact, since there was a negative crossover of the fast stoch and the close was lower than the open there is potential for some downside movement.
SLV is finally the belle of the ball. I stated yesterday that if the high (15.85) was taken out then the move might have some strength. All the stochs and MACD look good for further upside. My biggest concern is that SLV is now leading the way which often comes at the end of a move in the sector.
In the #steemsilvergold community there is consensus and disagreement. Consensus is that the range of the market is tightening and a move is coming. The disagreement is when this range breaks which way will the market turn up or down. I am in the camp that believes that we are heading for a summer rally. That being said, I am currently short the HUI and suspect that one way or another these positions will be closed tomorrow. This is a gambler's market and trades are short in duration with tight stop loss.
These are just my thoughts and observations, not advice etc. Please post yours below. Thank you for your comments and I have read many of your linked posts. Up vote.
As for tomorrow good luck and happy hunting.