June 19, 2017 Attention all Riverboat Gamblers
I have posted that I am looking for a significant low in the HUI between June 19 and July 14 and a change in trend to the upside. We have entered the time zone for a low that should reverse the downtrend that has been in full force since February 8, 2017.
If you are trading this market be very careful. I have a bad habit of buying too early and selling too early. Since we have entered the time zone I will try and maintain absolute discipline with buy and sell throughout this period, fast trades with tight stop losses. I still am looking for one or two more short trades before we change trend, but who knows.
Today the HUI closed down 0.36 points (0.2%) at 185.81. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochs are down and in oversold territory and MACD remains down with no evidence of positive divergence.
GLD closed down $0.91 (0.76%) at 118.43. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochs are down and in oversold territory and MACD remains down with no sign of positive divergence.
SLV closed down $0.18 (1.14%) at 15.61. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochs are down and in oversold territory. Both the fast and slow stochs are imbedded (3 days or more in oversold territory) indicating further downside. MACD is down but is potentially forming a bottom.
Today's action showed that the bears are fully in charge. On Friday I mentioned that the bears drove the HUI down to the daily target of 185.03 (the actual low of Friday 185.27) but failed to breach 185.03. Today the bears breached 185.03 with a low of 184.91. I posted earlier today that I closed the last of my short positions on the breach. So I am completely out of the market at this time. On the 30 minute chart the low of the 10:00 am bar was . . .drum roll . . . 185.022, now that is target recognition. So much for the random walk theory of the market. I really enjoy pointing out the absolute order of time and of price that reveal themselves in the market. From that point the HUI rallied to the high of the day 188.12 before settling at the close.
For the bears, in the HUI the daily targets remain the same. The bears need to push the HUI down through 185.03 then the following targets come into play 181.84; 176.18 and 170.66. For the bulls, not much on the daily charts. On the short term, based upon the action on the thirty minute charts, if today's low holds, then we may see a short counter trend rally. Based upon today's action, that rally, if it occurs, will begin in earnest with a hard breach of today's high of 188.12. If there is a rally the following numbers come into play 189.47, 190.67, 191.75, 192.59, 194.02, 196.27 there are others higher but these are the ones I will watch for signs of weakness ie rally over and the bears reassert themselves to push the HUI down. If there is a rally I will not be buying, but rather looking for a short opportunity. On a daily basis, to change the trend, the bulls would need to recapture the 204 area and the stochs would have to come out of oversold territory and MACD would have to show positive divergence and all the angels in heaven would have to carry the hui back up to 204. At this time, it could happen, but that is a real tall order for now.
GLD looks weak with a gap that formed on the high of 5/16/17 at 117.91 fully in play. Will the gap be filled? I don't know but as we have witnessed the market sure does like to fill gaps. Nothing on the daily chart says buy.
SLV looks ugly. Nothing says buy me. There is a gap on the daily chart that formed on the high of 5/11/17 at 15.47.
When we get to these times the trades get very tricky. The bears are fully in charge but time is not on their side. Big and sudden moves to the downside come into play. The bulls need to show some sort of life over the next few weeks of trading but how much more pain can endured? Getting the exact bottom or top is great for bragging rights. Missing the exact bottom or top can cost real money. These are just my thoughts not advice etc. I would like to hear your thoughts. If you like up vote share etc. Happy hunting.