6/9 BTC Daily Report

Today, Bitcoin experienced a slight rebound after a decline. The imminent release of crucial unemployment and non-farm payroll data revealed that August's job growth fell short of expectations, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. This may lead the market to believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to significantly cut interest rates this month. At this critical juncture, Bitcoin's major whale, Arthur Hayes (also the founder of BitMEX), unexpectedly stated that he believes Bitcoin will plummet below $50,000 over the weekend and that he has already shorted it. What is the situation? Do other major on-chain whales and institutional spot ETFs share this view?

From Bitcoin's daily chart, we can see that after breaking below the previous low of $57,000 yesterday, the price slightly rebounded earlier today, but it seems to be a false rebound followed by a sharp decline. Looking at the 4-hour chart, after breaking below $57,000, there was a slight rebound, indicating a rather convoluted movement. Yesterday's ADP employment report and unemployment claims data, one positive and one negative, offset each other. The S&P 500 also slightly rebounded after a decline, forming a daily doji candle. Therefore, there are not many good trading opportunities here. The trend of lower highs and lower lows continues, with no change in the market framework and no higher highs.

Initially, I expected Bitcoin to stay above $57,000 and form a converging triangle, waiting for the release of the more important non-farm payroll and unemployment data today to choose a direction. However, we can see that after receiving support initially, it quickly broke down again. This is indeed a weaker pattern. So, before creating a higher high and changing the market framework, I will continue to monitor the low around $54,500. If there is a false break and a recovery, I am willing to try a short-term long position. However, given the significant volatility after the release of these two crucial economic data points, everyone must pay attention to their risk management.

Let's look at a piece of news. Bitcoin's major whale, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, posted on X earlier, stating that he believes Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 over the weekend. This time, unlike previous occasions, he not only predicted the drop but also explicitly mentioned that he has taken a "cheeky short" position. This is more valuable than his previous casual remarks. I remember the last time he made a specific prediction was when SOL rose from a few dollars to over a hundred dollars last year.

What do other major on-chain whales think? According to the latest on-chain data, holders of less than 1 BTC, 1-10 BTC, and 10-100 BTC are still buying, but whales holding over 100 BTC are selling, with over 1,300 BTC sold, more than yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, since the weak manufacturing data a few days ago, whales have been selling for three consecutive days, starting from the first break below the previous low of $57,000 on the 4th. Another point of concern is that retail investors have been buying during these three days, while whales have been selling. This is worth noting whenever the market shows extreme sentiment.

It is important to note that the main reason for monitoring this data is not to sell immediately when retail investors buy, but to view it from a different perspective as a risk warning. For example, you know that whales have been selling in recent days, but you do not know the reasons behind their actions. If whales are looking at the next few weeks, but you mistakenly take it as a short-term signal, it can be very dangerous.

Next, let's look at the situation with spot ETFs. Today, there was a total outflow of $210 million, over 3,600 BTC. This significant net outflow of $200 million is noteworthy. Upon closer inspection, BlackRock maintained zero outflows, similar to previous days, while Fidelity had substantial outflows. These amounts (160M, 149M) do not seem to be caused by retail investors. So, who is selling at this time? We may have to wait until the next quarter's 13F report to find out.

My view is that if a significant event occurs, it would be due to another unexpected weak non-farm payroll report (which did not happen) causing the market to panic about a recession. Looking at the chart, the distance to $50,000 is about 10%, so it is not too far. If it happens, I will focus on the spot buying opportunity below, specifically on the weekly chart. After it falls back, I believe the midline of the descending channel at 61,097 and the key level at 59,500 will form significant resistance. Therefore, after the next close and rebound, unless it recovers above $61,000, we need to be cautious of a potential long upper shadow followed by another decline. The focus will be on whether there is a spot buying opportunity below, so remember to be patient.

Next, let's look at the funding rate. During the continuous decline over the past two days, the funding rate has been decreasing, while the open interest has been rising. This indicates that the market is continuously shorting.

I believe that after the decline and continuous downward trend, if a reversal is to occur, it may first test the lower levels. Focus on the $54,000 - $55,000 range.

What do you think? Considering the spot ETF data and on-chain whale data, do you believe Arthur Hayes' prediction of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 this weekend will come true? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below. I hope the above information has been helpful to you.