In 2021, the currency circle wealth cipher, they said DeFi and NFT

At the end of 2020, many people made predictions and boldly guessed the hot spots in 2021. This article has compiled three predictions:

1) Yu Jianing, President of Huobi University, in the era of the Big Bang in 2021;

2) 1confirmation's investment analyst: three major industry trends in 2021;

3) Calvin Chu's prediction of wealth freedom in 2021.

1. Commonality of hot spots in 2020

Looking back at the four hotspots in 2020, Polkadot started to do it in 2017, Filecoin also started fundraising in 2017, projects such as aave and MakerDao in DeFi also started in 2017, and ETH2.0 has been doing it for a long time.

In terms of time, these hotspots have gradually developed and grown after a long period of accumulation and development. In other words, hot spots are the result of long-term market precipitation.

From the application point of view, the most popular is DeFi. The market has shifted from a pure story perspective to practical applications, although many projects in DeFi rely on storytelling. But now looking at the leading projects of DeFi, they all have a solid user base and usage scenarios, such as Aave and Uni. Polkadot, Filecoin, and ETH2.0 are application infrastructures, one cross-chain, one storage, and one faster ETH.

Then the hot spots in 2021 should also be things that have been accumulated over a long period of time, otherwise it will be short-lived rather than a long-term hot spot.

Therefore, personally looking at 2020, the hot spots will still be DeFi, Polkadot, and Filecoin. Because these three have not released all their energy. For example, the application of DeFi is far more than that. The entry of blockchain technology into application is the kingly way, and it has also reached the stage of application.

According to the blockchain technology maturity curve released by Gartner in 2019, many blockchain technologies will enter a recovery period in 2021. (In 2020, Gartner has not yet released the maturity curve of blockchain technology)

2. Huobi University President Yu Jianing, the era of the Big Bang in 2021

Yu Jianing said that in 2021, blockchain technology will enter the era of big bang, and the huge potential energy generated by the transformation of wealth will be the greatest opportunity for a generation, with three major trends.

1) The big explosion of digital assets, the wave of digital wealth has begun;

2) The big explosion of on-chain transactions, the digital renminbi as a programmable currency, the era of the Internet of Everything is the era of fully online transactions;

3) The big explosion of industrial applications, new technologies accelerate the construction of new infrastructure, and accelerate the development of blockchain applications and industrial innovation.

In 2021, there will be many new blockchain tracks worthy of attention, namely distributed storage, DeFi, and NFT.

1) Distributed storage system: maximize the value of data and form a new business form;

2) DeFi: It heralds that the "new generation of financial revolution" is coming, and blockchain is changing the financial system in all aspects;

3) NFT: The model of helping assets on the chain opens up the boundaries of digital wealth.

For the NFT track, what I want to say is that it started to attract attention in 2017 because of the appearance of an ethereal cat. In 2020, driven by DeFi, NFT will also develop to a certain extent, and the infrastructure of NFT will become more and more complete.

3. Investment analyst of 1confirmation: Three major trends in the blockchain industry in 2021

1. Encryption art

The trading volume of the crypto art industry has increased by more than 50% from the previous month. The digital artist Beeple, who has more than 1.7 million Instagram followers, issued NFTs and tokenized some of his artworks.

Source: https://cryptoart.io/data

Why I think the potential of encryption art is endless:

1) Blockchain can easily verify the authenticity of artworks, while traditional artworks, such as Picasso's paintings, are difficult to forge but also difficult to verify.

2) NFT has opened up a new business model for digital artists that can sell personal artworks without relying on commissions from commercial customers.

3) Encrypted art is in a good position to capture the changing taste of the art world from baby boomers to millennials.

4) Cryptographic art is one of the potential main ways to use blockchain and cryptocurrency.

2. Forecast the market

A major event in 2020: The polling agencies believe that Biden has an 85%-90% chance of winning the election, while the prediction market believes that this probability is around 60%-65%.

In hindsight, the results of the election were much closer than expected, and the polls were completely wrong. But opinion polls are a multi-billion dollar industry, and hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds have been wasted due to inaccurate opinion poll data.

In a society that does not trust the mainstream, as a source of information, we have long been optimistic about the prediction market. Now, the prediction market has reached a one million inflection point and trading volume has reached tens of millions of dollars.

3. DeFi derivative products

From 2018 to 2020, DeFi infrastructure has developed rapidly, such as lending agreements (Aave, Compound,), trading platforms (Uniswap, Curve, Balancer), and asset issuance agreements (USDC, DAI, WBTC).

As these basic layers continue to grow, the huge liquidity based on this allows a new layer of derivative financial instruments to be established. The more obvious examples include structured products, index ETFs, options, futures, swaps and so on.

In traditional finance, the scale of the derivatives market is several times that of the spot market. BlackRock has a market value of US$100 billion, and the total market value of structured financial products is estimated to be 5 to 10 times higher (US$500 billion to US$1 trillion). If you want to extend to the DeFi industry, this means that there are major opportunities in derivatives projects, and the current is only the tip of the iceberg of everything that is coming.

Fourth, Calvin Chu's prediction of wealth freedom in 2021

Calvin Chu said that if you understand these forecasts, you may achieve financial freedom by the end of 2021. He gave 21 forecasts, which is quite a lot.

The author briefly summarizes three direct price comparison predictions:

1) DeFi+NFT will push up the valuation of NFT projects;

2) There will be many Dapps on Layer 2;

3) ETH will outperform BTC in 2021;

4) In 2021, social tokens will become more and more popular, and at least one social token will enter the top 250 market capitalization list.

For the full text of Calvin Chu’s 21 predictions, you can view https://twitter.com/calchulus/status/1346579305057325056?s=20

summary

In the three forecasts, DeFi and NFT are mentioned. Everyone is gradually familiar with DeFi, and at the same time, they are given a relatively high forecast. This is worth noting.

Among the three predictions, the Polkadot ecology is rarely mentioned, which is a bit surprising. Perhaps Polkadot is an opportunity for speculation, and industry opportunities have not yet appeared. Polkadot has only been online for a few months, and the ecology is under construction, and there have not been any projects that have hit the market.

Finally, it is very clear that DeFi is a hot spot. What is not clear is the track in DeFi, is it a derivative? Or algorithmic stablecoin? Adults don’t make choices, I want them, and I pay attention to them.