600% profit in one month! Can SIREN keep up its run?

How are you all? I hope that everyone is well and healthy wherever you are. How are you spending your days? It is not uncommon for sleepless nights to be forbidden in the current state of the crypto market. Especially for those who work with small caps or new trending coins, it is quite an exciting time.

I have been delving into a particular project or coin for the past few days. The coin is called 'siren' (siren). Those of you who track the market regularly must have noticed that this project has taken the world by storm in the last month. Almost 600% profit! Can you imagine? But before jumping on the profit, I thought I needed to take a look at what is actually happening inside. Because what you see in front of you in the crypto market is often a different story behind the scenes.

I have analysed several data, chart patterns and on-chain activity. Today, I would like to share with you the things that have come to my attention. This is not financial advice, but my personal analysis as a crypto enthusiast.

1. Incredible Rise and Current Position

The first thing that surprised me was Siren’s performance over the past 30 days. It has risen by over 600% in just one month. It is currently hovering around $1.95. But its journey has not been smooth at all. Between March 22 and 24, it plummeted from $4.71 to $0.79. A crash of almost 83% in just two days!

I was a little worried about this huge rise. However, when I zoomed out a little on the chart, I noticed something interesting. An ‘inverse head and shoulders’ pattern is forming here on the 4-hour timeframe. In the language of technical analysis, this is a bullish signal. If this pattern is successful, there is a possibility of another 287% growth from here. But the question is, is what the chart says true?

2. RSI Divergence: A Warning Signal

When I checked the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the 4-hour chart, I noticed something strange. Although the price is trying to move up, the RSI is moving down. We call this 'Bearish Divergence'. In simple terms, the price is increasing, but the strength or momentum behind that price increase is slowly decreasing.

According to my analysis, if the next candles close below the current level, this divergence will be confirmed. This means that the 'Right Shoulder' that we are waiting for may form a little lower than the current price. But don't worry, as long as the price is above $0.79, this bullish pattern will persist. That is, even if the price drops 60% from here, SIREN can still technically be bullish. However, not everyone has the ability to withstand a 60% drop, so it's important to be a little careful here.

3. Smart Money vs. Big Holders: What’s Going on Behind the Scenes?

When I was digging into the on-chain data, I came across the biggest surprise. Analysing Nansen’s data, I found that in the last seven days, ‘Smart Money’ or experienced and big investors have sold about 99.74% of their holdings. They now have only a few hundred tokens left.

Now the question may arise, if smart money sells everything, who is holding the price? Here’s the twist! I saw that the top 100 wallets or big whales have accumulated more tokens during this period. Their balance has increased by about 96%. It’s like a double-edged sword. On the one hand, as big holders are buying, they are positive, but on the other hand, if control is lost to a few people, they can manipulate the market whenever they want.

Another concern is exchange inflow. The amount of SIREN tokens entering exchanges has increased by 3.9% in the past week. Usually, people bring tokens to exchanges only when they want to sell them. So, the exit of smart money and the arrival of tokens to exchanges - these two together indicate a short-term selling pressure.

4. Liquidation map: Bearish vs. Bullish battle

When I was looking at the liquidation data of various exchanges, I saw that the number of traders sitting with short positions is very high. About $ 21.31 million of short liquidation leverage has accumulated around $ 2.29. In contrast, there are only $ 10.56 million in long positions.

This means that most people in the market think that the price will go down. But the market always moves in the opposite direction from the majority. If somehow the price of SIREN crosses $2.29 and the 4-hour candle closes there, those who have shorted will start liquidating. We call this a 'Short Squeeze'. The price can reach the neckline of $2.75 very quickly due to this liquidation. And once $2.75 is crossed, it is only a matter of time before the old record of $4.71 is broken.

5. My personal observations and actions

When I put the whole thing together, a few scenarios are working in my head:

Support Level: I personally give great importance to the levels of $1.72 and $1.59. If the price falls below this, then it should be understood that the bearish pressure is very high. And $0.79 is the ultimate support. If it goes below this, all analysis is cancelled.

Resistance: $2.29 is the biggest obstacle right now. If this wall can be broken, a big rally can be seen.

Risk vs. Potential: It's possible to be bullish even with a 60% drop—it's nice to hear, but in practice it's a much bigger risk. What I'm doing is, instead of investing everything at once, I'm thinking of doing dollar cost averaging (DCA) if the price hits the lower support.

Finally, the SIREN project is currently at a critical juncture. On the one hand, the bullish pattern on the chart is telling us about our big dreams; on the other hand, the exit of smart money and RSI divergence are warning us. I always believe that if you want to survive in crypto, it's better to rely on data than blind faith.

From what I've gathered from various sources, SIREN still has the potential to make a big move, but before that, we may have to endure some more volatility. Those of you who are thinking about it should definitely do some more research yourself. And yes, don't forget to use stop losses, because safety comes first in this market.

What do you think? Will SIREN be able to break its old all-time high? Or will it fade away again after the smart money leaves? I would be happy to hear your opinion in the comments. Stay safe, everyone, trade carefully. Thank you!