Fantasy Premier League (FPL) – Double Gameweek 27 (DGW27) || the-gorilla Thoughts

Although the focus of this article (and most articles that I’ll write about FPL) will be upon my own specific circumstances, I’m hoping that it will be of use to the wider community and that we can learn from each other so please comment and let me know if there’s a position, player or team that you’d like my thoughts on.

Defenders

For this article, I’ll be looking at making a change in defence. According to my own custom metrics, Manchester United have the toughest fixtures from a defensive point of view (MCI (A), WHU (H), blank, BHA (H) and TOT (A) in the next 5) and I currently have Luke Shaw – he’s a more attacking player but fixtures don’t appeal from that point of view either.

My other defenders are currently El Mohamady, Rudiger, Stones and Aina so I want somebody who will rotate well with these players (I like to play 3 defenders).

3 teams stand out as possible options so I’ll focus on players from these teams – Newcastle, Leeds and Spurs. Note that I'm ignoring Southampton due to their blank in GW29.

Newcastle have a lot of injuries in defence at the moment so I need to be careful to choose a player who will continue playing once others return. I'd say that Lewis (£4.2m) and Lascelles (£4.2m) are the stand-out options in this regard.

Leeds have a far more settled defence although Llorente's recent return from injury does cast a little doubt over who will start so the main options here are Ayling (£4.4m), Cooper (£4.3m) and Dallas (£5.0m). Dallas has been starting at Left Back recently however he's spent much of the season in Midfield (recently moving into Midfield when Alioski comes on as sub).

Of the 3 teams we're looking at, Tottenham's team is probably the hardest to select. Aurier (£5.2m) and Doherty (£5.6m) have shared the right back spot in recent weeks. Alderweireld (£5.4m) and Sanchez (£5.2m) have been starting at centre back recently although Dier (£4.9m) has played most frequently this season. Reguilon (£5.5m) is recently back from injury and could be rotated with Davies (£4.6m). It's hard to choose a stand-out option here and I can't afford to transfer-in somebody who doesn't play so I'm going to pass up on this group (although I do like Aurier's and Reguilon's chances).

This leaves me with a shortlist of 5 defenders that I believe have a chance of keeping a clean sheet so it's time to pick out the most attacking option.

To do this, I'll compare the player's Expected Goals, Expected Assists, Threat and Creativity over the past 5 gameweeks.

Straight away, we can see that from an attacking perspective, the Newcastle players don't get a look in (even after you account for Lascelles playing fewer minutes). Comparing the 3 Leeds players, they're all very close from a Threat + Creativity point of view but it's clear to see that when it comes to the big chances, Liam Cooper is the man that these fall to (and from watching Leeds play, I've wondered how he hasn't been on the scoresheet recently). He's also the most budget friendly of my options so looks like a good choice.

The Transfer

👋 Luke Shaw 💫 Liam Cooper 👍