100:0 passed! Does China-us diplomacy exist in name only? China must prepare for all three
Since 2016, under the leadership of Trump, the US government has begun to shift to the right, the most important manifestation of which is that it is becoming more and more conservative, and it is also increasingly clamping down on China, provoking economic trade war, political Indo-Pacific strategy, and various public opinion wars in culture, etc.
Many believe that with Trump out of office, Biden, who is politically progressive, will try to change this mutually unfriendly policy and improve relations between China and the United States.
Before Biden took office, he also kept sending out signals about multilateralism. In August, in the heat of the presidential election, Biden told US Public Radio that Manufacturing was in recession and agriculture was losing billions of dollars because of a series of bad decisions made by Trump.
If I am elected president, I will eliminate import tariffs on Chinese goods. In the interview, Biden also sharply criticized Trump's unilateralist policies, saying that trade with China should be dealt with multilateralism.
Mr Biden's arrival has not only failed to improve the bilateral relationship, it has worsened it
After biden took office, all illusions were disillusioned, because instead of focusing on improving the relationship between China and the United States, Biden stepped up the fight against China from all sides. Just a few months after Biden took office, the U.S. Senate passed the Strategic Competition Act of 2021 with a high approval rate.
The bill is 281 pages long and covers a wide range of issues, including the US military, trade and foreign affairs. The regulations against China occupy a large part of the bill, which not only stipulate the formulation of foreign policy towards China, tariff barriers on trade with China and so on, but also includes policies concerning Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet, which is totally a bill interfering in China's internal affairs. The bill could even be renamed the China Competition Act of 2021.
Different from the previous China policy, the passage of this bill marks a further summary, update and strengthening of America's China policy. In the past, Trump's China policy was a chaotic one, but biden's China policy is a disciplined one. It not only automatically makes policies on China, but also forms a system and rules.
Once the bill passes the senate's review and becomes a concrete law, it means that the U.S. strategy of containing China will rise to the national will, further worsening the sino-U.S. relations.
Not only has biden made legal decisions on China, but he has also stepped up his military efforts. As recently as April, the United States has repeatedly assembled its own and allied warships, under the banner of "maintaining freedom of navigation", to impose military pressure on China.
On April 1, the U.S. EP-3 spy plane flew over the South China Sea for military reconnaissance. Two days later, the U.S. destroyer Mustin was spotted in the East China Sea off the Yangtze River estuary. On April 4, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt entered the South China Sea. On the same day, German Defense Minister Karrenbauer announced that he would send troops to the Asia-pacific waters.
France also held a joint military exercise in the Bay of Bengal with Japan, India and Australia, among other Indo-Pacific countries, on Tuesday, saying that it is aimed at countering China's ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region. Such intensive military action is unprecedented under The Trump administration.
In addition, the United States frequently appears in the South China Sea and constantly struggles with its Indo-Pacific countries. Its military intention is very obvious, which is to trap the Chinese navy in China's inland sea and prevent it from sailing out to the ocean.
If all the previous actions were just a provocation to China and some small means to contain China, then the latest incident is a complete challenge to China's bottom line. Not long ago, Taiwan's Central News Agency reported that the US Senate passed a bill to help Taiwan regain its observer status at the World Health Organization (WHO) with 100 unanimous votes.
The WHO is part of the United Nations. Like the United Nations, only sovereign states can participate in the WHO. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Taiwan authorities have tried to seek independence under the pretext of "global response".
Interestingly, Taiwan made a long fuss to join the WHO, until the Trump administration withdrew from the WHO, and the Taiwan authorities' voice to join the WHO immediately died down.
When Biden took office, he halted the U.S. withdrawal from the WORLD Health Organization. Now, by passing this law, the United States is actually helping the Taiwan authorities' "Taiwan independence" process. When China and the United States established diplomatic ties, they issued a joint communique in which the United States recognized the "one China" principle and severed diplomatic ties with the Taiwan authorities.
This is not only the basis for the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, but also the bottom line, which cannot be crossed. Now the US has passed this law in flagrant violation of the China-Us Joint Communique. It can be said that China-Us relations have ceased to exist in name only!
At present, the basic thinking of the United States' China policy is two-fold. First, it is to step on the red line where there is a red line. For example, the Hong Kong issue and the Xinjiang issue are issues in which the United States often intervenes. Second, where there is our interests to go where. One Belt one Road and other issues are places where the United States often intervenes.
China must prepare for three worst-case scenarios
First, we need to abandon the illusion that the United States will develop peacefully with China and be ready to fight. At the end of last month, the United States, along with the United Kingdom, the European Union, NATO and many other countries and organizations, issued a statement saying that China was responsible for the attack on Microsoft servers in the United States. In addition, the United States has said it will crack down on Chinese cyber attacks.
In addition to China, the United States has blamed Russia for the cyberattacks on a number of American businesses. For all its rhetoric, the US has not produced a shred of evidence. On the Chinese side, last year alone, more than 5 million mainframe computers were maliciously controlled from outside China, most of which are located in NATO countries, according to their locations.
Shortly after the incident, Biden gave a speech during a visit to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in which he referred to the cyber confrontation between the United States and China and Russia. Biden called China and Russia "deadly adversaries" of the United States and a challenge to the United States.
He also said that if the cyber conflict escalates, it could also escalate into a violent armed conflict, which Biden called "a real hot war between great powers."
This is not just a sign of the intensity of the cyber conflict between The United States and China. It is also a sign that the United States has never abandoned the idea of a hot war, and that it is quite possible to start one at a desperate moment. And we must not be complacent. We must be fully prepared for a war that could come at any moment.
Secondly, we should guard against the inside as well as the outside enemy. From the disintegration of the Soviet Union, we can see that the color revolution launched by the Western countries through the means of spreading reactionary public opinion and malicious rhythm can really destroy a country from the inside.
In this century, the United States carried out color revolutions in Iraq, Syria, Libya and other countries, which led to a large degree of civil unrest in these countries. Then, under the banner of "human rights, democracy and freedom", the United States sent troops to interfere in their internal affairs and invade their countries, so as to continue its hegemony.
China is now the biggest rival of the US, so they never stop their color revolution against China. As can be seen from the riots in Hong Kong in 19 years, the Color revolution in the United States has already affected China, and we must be prepared for it.
Since Biden took office, probably because the money came in, there has been a lot of reactionary rhetoric on the Internet. For every social event, there are always some people who want to bring it to the national level, to the institutional road level, so as to negate our path and achievements.
We should be vigilant against the influence of these reactionary forces on public opinion and prevent social unrest. In the face of the biden administration's step by step pressure on public opinion, the country has also issued the "anti-espionage security and Prevention work regulations", which is aimed at the interference of foreign forces in our public opinion.
China's national security authorities should not only intensify their efforts to crack down on foreign forces, but also go deep into the masses, encouraging them to expose and report spies. If they successfully report a spy, the maximum reward can even reach 500,000 yuan. From the national level to the people's continuous efforts, the current network public opinion has formed a good situation.
Finally, be fully prepared for the United States to block shipping lines. From March 3 to 16, the U.S. Navy conducted a naval exercise called "Large-scale Exercise 2021" across 17 time zones in three continents, Asia, Europe and Africa.
It was the largest exercise by the US Navy in 40 years. Why did the US put so much effort into arranging this exercise? Some experts say it is an exercise by the United States to seal off Chinese waters in time of war.
Since the opening of new shipping routes, the world has entered the ocean age, and shipping has become the most important mode of transportation in the world due to its large volume and low cost. According to this year's China Maritime Day Announcement, 95% of China's foreign trade is completed by sea, including oil and iron ore and other important energy and resources. It is no exaggeration to say that sea transportation is the main artery of China's economy.
In addition, the current war is also the war between the navy and the air force, and there is no territory connected between China and the United States. Once the war begins, it will be a war between the navy and the air force. Once the blockade of the sea means that overseas transportation routes will be cut off, China's economic artery will stop beating, and China's many energy resources will not be guaranteed, so the blockade of the sea will not only cause great economic turmoil, but also affect China's most basic national defense security.
So how will China respond to this potential threat? First of all, we must promote a strategic transformation of the economy. Since the reform and opening up, China continues to open to the outside world, accelerate the exchange and trade with foreign countries, has become one of the three carriages to promote China's economic growth, but at the same time, the proportion of China's trade internal circulation is decreasing, foreign trade dependence has exceeded 50%.
From the economic point of view, this is indeed beneficial to China's advantage of gathering countries around the world, but from the defense point of view, there is a hidden danger that once the blockade of foreign trade will fall into an economic crisis.
Therefore, China's current economy must undergo a transformation, this transformation has two aspects, the first is that China's foreign trade from the extreme dependence on ocean trade to both land and sea trade. Maritime areas can be sealed off, but it is difficult to seal off the land, so China should strengthen the construction of the land Silk Road Economic Belt, and enhance the trade between Xinjiang and central Asia, the Middle East and other places.
The second is to build an independent economic system based on internal circulation. The term internal circulation has been mentioned repeatedly in the documents released this year, which is actually a trend of the current Korean economy. Unlike small countries such as Japan and Korea, Korea cannot survive without dependence on other countries.
China has huge territory, abundant resources and a large population, and it has huge potential for both suppliers and consumers. Now what we need to do is to improve productivity and attract domestic demand, so that our production drives our consumption, and then consumption feeds production, so as to form a benign internal cycle, so as to build a self-sustaining economic system, without fear of the sudden cut off of overseas trade.
The second is to shape an "alliance on land" to match America's "alliance at sea". Even the US knew it couldn't win on its own, so it called in a lot of countries like The UK, France, Germany and Japan, but they all had the characteristic of being maritime powers, and they could use the sea to exert pressure on China.
China must not go it alone. It must forge a "land alliance" with other land-based countries. Now, among the anti-hegemonic countries in the world, Russia, North Korea and Iran are all land-based countries, and they are all anti-American hegemony, so we need to step up contact with them, relying on the Eurasian continent, and mediate in the Western seas of the United States. Under such a general posture, China will not be besieged on all sides and gain a strategic advantage.
China has been away from war for so long that most people have adapted to a peaceful life. But we must always remind ourselves that the United States is a warlike nation. For more than 200 years since the founding of the United States, 90 percent of the events have been at war. The blood of war is in their body.
In the game between China and the United States, the United States has never given up force. No matter the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Yugoslav embassy incident or the Aircraft collision in the South China Sea, all these are the military pressure of the United States on China.
Now in the struggle between China and the United States, the United States is constantly losing, and now the right wing elements in the United States are gradually gaining the upper hand, they may jump at any time, so we should always be ready for the United States to wage war, in case of need!