Stack, Reallocate, Or Do Nothing?

waphilip (63)in OCD • 4 years ago

Although I've been silent over the last few months, I've been following what's been happening on HIVE and Steem since early February. So much so, the drama was starting to negatively affect my daily life. I was at almost every discord meeting and listened to almost every meeting with Voldemort, opps I mean Justin, from start to finish.

I was worried about the years filled with countless time and money invested being washed down the drain because of some power hungry millionaire couldn't swallow his pride and "play the game".

Discovering that my airdrop of HIVE more than 10X in value the morning we broke $1 put an actual tear in my eye. That happiness was fully taken over by anxiousness because this felt like 2017 all over again and I didn't want to make the same mistake twice.

I was fortunate enough to have been dealt a joker, now the question is how I should play it.

Last bull run I made the decision to go all in on Steem, which seemed to be a great decision when we pumped to $8, but sucked when I couldn't take any profit b/c I couldn't power down in time. Right now I have about 10k of Steem and HIVE and I am at a cross roads with how I want utilize to reach my long term goal.

Part of me wanted to just sell both and reallocate whatever I had left into ETH, BTC, and LINK, but my soul is telling me I'd be turning my back on the vision I've had for our community, which I was prepared to watch go to zero. Now that we finally have a spark, why would I sell out now?

Part of me wants to just sell all of my STEEM for HIVE and join the band wagon again, but I've watched BTC out perform STEEM so many times in the past, that my better judgement is telling me to average out of my position and wait.

This decision is honestly driving me insane because I want to build my way back to 20k HIVE, but also want to not feel FOMO for not owning enough BTC before the world realized what I realized close to a decade ago.

I figured It would be best to just get my thoughts down on paper and go from there.

I have 3 options

Don't sell my HIVE
AVG out into BTC or ETH & reallocate
AVG out into Stable Coin and wait and see how economy responds.

I decided to make a Pros and Cons list for keeping my HIVE and will figure out if the 3rd option is viable after.

PRO

A. Supply & Demand

Community selling Steem to power up HIVE
a. Less HIVE on market
b. Community continues to grow ->
- more demand for HIVE
- More development
HIVE popular b/c exchange listings & trading pairs
a. Adds demand from traders
b. Free publicity, so more demand from investors
c. Low market cap, so can gain value fast.
HIVE has Less supply compared to Steem
a. No ninja mined stake ->
1. more demand
2. Less selling pressure
Economic uncertainty
a. Inc demand via passive and active income via
1. Delegation (passive via Dlease)
2. Curation (active)
3. More attention when posting (active)

B. You enjoy being a part of a community opposed to just watching your portfolio grow.
1. Less likely to FOMO in or out b/c invested in vision
2. Actually have someone to talk to about crypto
3. Can support friends who have been grinding w/ u

C. Community has control so we can get ish done
1. Community showed ability to rally against threat
2. Decentralized, so no hidden agenda
3. Censorship resistant, so funds and freedom safe

CON

A. Economic uncertainty

STEEM historically lost value after inc in BTC dominance & BTC drops
Lose out on opportunity to have taken profit
Could’ve gotten a better position hedging into BTC
HIVE has lower market cap, so higher risk
Not diversified, higher risk keeping all my capital in HIVE
A Great Depression could decrease liquidity form smaller projects
BTC historically dumped after halving
a. Could hedge into BTC to dec risk
b. Get better pos in HIVE if BTC falls
Traditional markets could have another serious dump
a. Many believe that this latest pump is a trap, so the wealthy can get out.
Alt coins historically pump after BTC
a. Can hedge into BTC
b. Better pos in HIVE after BTC pump

B. Lose out on larger longterm gains elsewhere

BTC and ETH are almost sure to rise drastically in price in the coming years
1. Small alt coins don’t retain value.
  a. Chance we lose 90% of our market-cap during the next bear market.
  b. BTC historically retains it’s gains in the longer term.

It seems that I could think up more Pros than Cons for just keeping my HIVE and watching what happens. Typing this all out definitely made me feel better about this decision.

I think HIVE has so many reasons to inc in value during the mid-term, but what concerns me is the opportunity I could be taking in the short term, which could be a great opportunity to get a better position.

It's impossible to know what the markets are going to do next, so maybe I'll officially learn my lesson of more money, more problems.

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