You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
RE: REASON FOR BITCOIN MASSIVE SELL OFF? Learn my personal opinion and share yours
Hi @fijimermaid
The Federal Reserve, the ECB, BOJ and the PBOC…have the greatest impact on crypto prices because they control credit.
Overall I do agree. However, how to explain trading daily volumes on BTC increasing to record levels (from average $25-30mln to almost $90mln)? FED announcement didn't do it (otherwise we would see this dump few days earlier).
Credit drives finance and builds economies… it should not be underestimated.
It surely does. Noone denies it. But markets already reacted to FED annoncement and by the time BTC went down below $40k - it has been already priced in (plenty of time to do so)
My outlook on why, how and when people/whales/institutions buy and sell financial assets is based on sets of time and events, not on a specific time or event.
So you may get selling on Monday, but the reason for the selling was because of last Tuesday, and the Wednesday before that, and the second Friday of last month, etc… People that have a lot of capital to unload, do it over longer periods of time, therefore they have to look at trends, not an event.
For example, if I'm a large Institution, and I have billions of dollars of assets to offload on the market… it's going to take me 12 months to do that. I can't sell it all in one day or week. If I do that, with the amount of assets that I’m selling, it's going to trigger auto selling from other players all over the market, and I won't be able to get the price that I want because my selling is suppressing prices.
So I have to sell, then pause, then people get optimistic and start buying again at those “discounted” prices, which increases prices, then I start selling again… that is why you get a “stairs” look to market sell-offs.
With BTC volume exploding like you said, that has happened on a pretty consistent basis with BTC over the past 10 years…so it's really not unprecedented…although it's surprising in the moment.
And with the specific FED announcement…that's one part of a larger picture. It's not just one FED announcement
It's the trend that these whales are looking at. The selling that we're seeing today was triggered by sets of events that happened 2 years ago to the present.