We are one step away from exceeding the 1.5 °C limit
This simple figure has been resonating a lot in recent years, especially at the climate negotiating tables. 1.5 °C is the global temperature increase that has been set as a limit compared to the pre-industrial era, although, this is not supposed to reverse global warming, it could at least help prevent the most devastating effects of climate change.
Exceeding this limit means facing greater environmental risks. Source: edited image, original from openclipart.org.
This limit was first introduced in the Paris Agreement in 2015, and although the objective pursued with this agreement is not to reach more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, the value of 1.5 °C was established as an aspiration, since warming the planet by more than 2 degrees could trigger extreme weather events, so the scientific community calls for further limiting this increase, and the value of 1.5 degrees was chosen since that has been the highest quality temperature that could be inferred that the planet has recorded in the last million years.
But if it is already difficult to limit global warming to 2 degrees, limiting it to 1.5 is even more difficult, even though 0.5 °C seems to make little difference, in terms of global climate it has a great influence, even that half a degree difference implies a difference of about 20 cm in sea level rise, which considerably affects coastal communities.
And to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the century, the volume of carbon dioxide emissions must be halved by 2030, but we are far from achieving this goal, as 2022 closed with a new record in CO2 emissions, with 40.6 billion tons.
If this rate is maintained, the 1.5 °C limit will be reached much earlier than the established target, closer than we think, as the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) predicts that we will reach the 1.5 °C limit by 2035.
Screenshot from the Copernicus application. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service.
According to this organization, the year 2022 has been the fifth warmest year worldwide since there are records of global average temperatures, and although its calculations vary according to new reports, with data from recent years it is projected that this limit will be reached within the first half of the next decade, which is not encouraging.
This news worries the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has long called for reducing the massive emissions of CO2 and other gases, responsible for retaining heat in the atmosphere due to the greenhouse effect, and thus limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and not now face the consequences of exceeding this level.
Green house effet. Source: Wikipedia.org.
But according to current data, perhaps soon the topic of debate will not be when this critical value will be reached, but rather on what will happen next and how we will manage to cool the Earth, since if it is difficult to curb global warming within the remainder of the century, measures to reduce the global temperature could take decades or even centuries.
The UN warns that efforts must be doubled in the next two years and points out that we must invest in developing solutions based on nature, such as sustainable agricultural practices, reforestation of forests, curbing soil degradation, protecting different ecosystems, use of solar energy and other renewables.
But, although scientists point out that it is physically possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the truth is that in practice there are many interests involved that make it politically almost impossible.
Let us hope that, together with the scientific community, society in general will join the call to demand a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, because if this rate continues, the most vulnerable communities will be the first to feel the impact of climate change.
We just hope that we can together control the global climate - in order to avoid consequences that the world won't appreciate. Interesting read.
We must control soon the causes that have caused climate change, otherwise we risk facing serious consequences.
nice thoughts about the climate and its change.
It´s not about the studdies or the amount of Co2 emissions, because all this data is coming out of a short time frame a fraction regarding the age of our wonderful planet, and to be honest these cycles are totally normal for milliosn of years now.
We have the worst winterstorms in the last two years in Europe and parts of America and in parts oft south Asia, with tons of snow and ice, freezing temperatures all around.
15 years ago we had snow here on the Andalusian coast in Marbella where we normaly have never less than 12° C !
So that for me don´t sounds like warming, that sounds like cooling, and even the last summers where here in the south of europe not hotter than the peaks in other decades before, so its just the mixing up of temperatures and building averages from it,this only leads to wrong assumptions, and on these you can´t build a functioning modell -not in sience, nor in life - ;)
Sure there is a lot we could do, but believe me mother earth is able to regulate that on her own, she doesnt need our help "we are not able to change the climate,even if we want to"
It is not about changing the climate, the greenhouse effect is a phenomenon even of natural occurrence that helped our planet to warm up and prepare it to harbor life, but in recent years that effect has worsened, in your region you may notice lower temperatures, but in others the high temperatures and droughts are making strata, I think it is not about leaving all the work to the planet, we can contribute by avoiding further polluting the atmosphere.
I agree with you, but I doubt that the way we actually (try) to do it is the right one, there is no real helpful data wich shows that we had made any progress with pressing our citizens from fossil fuels in transportation to electric, this is kind of crazy to point out the private vehicles and heating sources to change any of the numbers and let the industry go on in the same way like bfore.
I´m working with energy (nuclear and renewable and hydrogen) for more than 35 years now, leading several international companies as a CEO, Chairman of the Board, and Head of project development so believe me I know what I´m talking about.
First and foremost we had to adapt some more efficient and better ways to produce our goods, because if the industry everywhere becomes cleaner then about 65% of the emissions are already reduced or at zero. If then the energy production for electricity or transportation fuels becomes more efficient and environmentally friendly we are at well over 90% from all this bad emissions.
After that, the vehicles and infrastructures of the military worldwide should be converted from heavy oil and diesel to hydrogen and we would be at almost 98%.
We here in europe could have had the complete individual traffic, the public transport, the transport system with trucks, ships and even airplanes running on hydrogen for 15 years, but it was not wanted, it cost us millions and some of our companies. And even today I don't really see much progress from where we had to stop then.