地缘政治博弈：伊斯兰国背后的大国角力与阴谋论

昨天说到，俄罗斯的恐怖袭击事件表面上看是ISIS——伊斯兰国恐怖组织所为。而且，他们也发布了证明的照片和视频。不过，这种行为更像是为了扩大他们组织的影响和利益的主动背锅行为。而且，讲到ISIS组织的崛起，似乎也是能够印证伊斯兰国实际上是美国和以色列情报机构扶持的阴谋论理论。

伊斯兰国诞生的时期，正好是美国在中东的政策结果非常不尽如人意的时期。发动伊拉克战争，推翻萨达姆政权，这是不仁义的时期。然而，扶持起来的新的民选伊拉克政府，由人口占多数的什叶派掌权，与美国的死对头伊朗在宗教信仰上相同，反而打开了伊朗势力向伊拉克渗透的大门。
接着，发动阿拉伯之春运动，想推翻叙利亚阿萨德这样的世袭独裁政权。结果，内战打成了持久战，还因为俄罗斯的介入，帮助阿萨德反对派面临着被反推的失败结局。

就在这时，伊斯兰国势力从叙利亚境内兴起，在叙利亚和伊拉克两国境内攻城略地，占领大片领土，独立建国。其首领还自称哈里发，这是历史上阿拉伯帝国最高统治者的称呼。这样一个之前闻所未闻的组织，在一夜之间发展壮大，是有可能受到了强大外援的作用。
而且，伊斯兰国的崛起正好为美国重新介入这一地区提供了非常好的借口。于是，以打击伊斯兰国为名，美国开始公开扶植代理人库尔德人，并且派出军队进入叙利亚。

与基地组织等极端组织以反美反以色列为主要目的不同，伊斯兰国几乎从不发动针对美国和以色列的袭击。而且，与普通的恐怖组织以打游击为主不同，他们在占领的地区建立政权，收税，用国家的方式进行统治。但是，仅仅靠征税是无法支撑战争开销的。于是，伊斯兰国还开采石油，低价出售，作为它的主要收入来源。而购买伊斯兰国石油的国家中，就包括了美国。

当然，当伊斯兰国完成了它的政治宣传视频之后，美国也和俄罗斯、伊朗一起，调转头来，打了一场战争。而且，战争的准备是在竞选连任的总统连任之前不久完成的。伊斯兰国首领被美国的特种部队击毙，所以说，时机把握得非常好。

第三国的清洗，完全依照美国人的需求，在恰当的时间，在任何恰当的时间发生。虽然这很阴谋论，但是，类似的事情在美国已经开展多年的禁毒战争中有几乎完全相同的模式。一方面，美国的药品和爆炸物管理局专门打击南美的贩毒组织；另一方面，美国又在南美扶持他们，作为自己的经费来源。

虽然伊斯兰国作为国家实体在中东被消灭了，但是它的组织仍然存在，而且在世界各地都有类似加盟店一样的分支。而这次声称对莫斯科恐怖袭击负责的是伊斯兰国佛罗山省。如果对中国历史比较了解，对佛罗山这个称呼也是很熟悉的，它是唐代对中亚地区的称呼。
所以，这个伊斯兰国被消灭之后，这批恐怖分子向美国扶持的库尔德人武装投降，并经由库尔德人的地盘进入了中亚地区。如今，他们已经在阿富汗国内发展壮大，成为挑战塔利班政权的主要力量。库尔德人和伊斯兰国是有血海深仇的，为什么可以放这些人一条生路，还提供通路？其中是不是有美国在其中运作，值得怀疑。

而且，纵观伊斯兰国和它的分支机构的历史，除了搞恐怖袭击之外，他们的对象很少针对美国和以色列，更主要的是针对美国的敌人，例如叙利亚政府、伊朗、俄罗斯，还有阿富汗的塔利班。所以，总的来说，伊斯兰国的背景相当可疑。所以，即使这场袭击确实是伊斯兰国策划的，而西方的很多情报机构也有参与其中的嫌疑。

---

昨天说到俄罗斯的不袭击事件，表面上看是ISIS伊斯兰国不组织所为，结果他们也发布了认领的图片和视频。不过这种行为更像是为了扩大他们组织的影响力的主动背锅行为。而且讲到ISIS组织的崛起，似乎也是能够印证伊斯兰国实际上是美国和以色列情报机构扶持的阴谋论理论。第三，伊斯兰国诞生的时期，正好是美国在中东的政策结果非常不尽。如人意的时期，发动伊拉特战争推翻萨达姆政权。但是扶植起来的新的民选，伊拉克政府由人口占多数的什叶派掌权与美国的死对头。伊朗在宗教信仰上相同，反而打开了伊朗势力向伊拉克渗透的大门发动阿拉伯之春运动想推翻叙利亚、阿萨德这样的世袭独裁政权结果内战打成了持久战，还因为俄罗斯介入帮助阿萨德反对派面临着被反推的失败结局。而就在这时，伊斯兰国势力从叙利亚境内兴起，在叙利亚和伊拉克两国境内攻城略地占领大片领土独立建国。他的首领还自称哈里发。这是历史上阿拉伯帝国最高统治者的称呼。这样一个之前闻所未闻的组织在一夜之间发展壮大，极有可能是受到了强大外援的作用。而且伊斯兰国的崛起正好为美国重新介入这一地区提供了非常好的借口。于是，以打击伊斯兰国为名，美国开始公开扶植你的代理人霍尔德人武装美国派出军队进入叙利亚，而且同基地组织等极端组织以反美反以色列为主要目的不同，伊斯兰国几乎从来的两者发动起击，但且与普通恐怖种子以打油机为主不同，他在占领的地区建立政权收税。他用国家的方式进行统治，但是仅仅靠征税却无法支撑战争开销的。于是，伊朗伊斯兰国还开采石油低价出售，作为他的主要收入来源，而购买伊斯兰国。石油的国家，终究包括低价能源的国家，就包括美国。当然，当伊斯兰国完成了他的政治使命之后，美国也和俄罗斯伊朗一起调转头来打击消灭他。伊斯兰国的哈里发也在川普总统准备竞选连任的连任。之前不久被美国的特种部队击毙，一以说时机把握的非常好。伊斯兰国的兴起部灭，完全依照美国人的需求，在恰当的时间发生在时机把握的时间。虽然就很阴谋论，但是类似的事情在美国已经开展多年的禁毒战争中，有几乎完全相同的模式。一方面，美国的DEA药品和爆炸物管理局专门打击南美的贩毒组织。一方面，美国的CIA又在南美扶耻，他们作为自己的经费来源，虽然伊斯兰国作为国家实体在中东被消灭了，但是他的组织仍然存在，而且在世界各地都有类似加盟电一样的分支。而这次声称对莫斯科恐怖袭击负责的是伊斯兰国忽罗山省。如果对中国历史比较了解，对布罗山这个称呼也是很耳熟的，它是唐代对中亚地区的恩呼。所以这个伊斯兰国忽罗山省也主要是在中亚地区，包括阿富汗活动。而这一分支组织的人员来源起，最早还是来自于叙利亚在伊斯兰国被消灭之后，这一批恐怖分子向美国扶持的库尔德人武装投降，并经由库尔德人的地盘进入了亚亚亚区。如今，他们已经阿阿富汗国内发展壮大，成为挑战塔利班政权的主要力量。普尔德人和伊斯兰国是有血海深仇的，为什么可以放这些人一条生路来提供公路，其中是不是有美国在其中运作值得怀疑？而且纵观伊斯兰国和他的分支机构或者历史出来搞恐怖袭击之外，他的对象很少。针对美国和以色列，更主要的是针对美国的敌人，例如叙利亚政府、伊朗、俄罗斯，还有阿富汗的塔利班。对于总的来说，伊斯兰国的背景相当可疑。所以即使这场袭击确实是由伊斯兰国策划的，而西方的很多情报机构也有干预其中的嫌疑。你摸摸着等啊，你我不要我摸他呀，在火锅里头来呀嗯。

---

Said yesterday that the Russian no-strike was ostensibly the work of ISIS, the Islamic State group. Moreover, they also released a film and video of the statement. However, such actions are more likely to be active non-state actions aimed at expanding the influence and interests of their organizations. Moreover, the rise of the S Group seems to confirm the conspiracy theory that the Islamic State is supported by American and Israeli intelligence agencies.

The Islamic State was born at a time when American policy in the Middle East has turned out very poorly. The invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein were inhumane times. However, the emergence of a new, democratically elected Iraqi government, dominated by a majority Shia population that shares the same religious beliefs as America's arch-rival Iran, has opened the door for Iranian influence to infiltrate Iraq.
Then came the Arab Spring, which sought to overthrow hereditary dictatorships like Syria's Bashar al-Assad. As a result, the civil war dragged on, and Russia's intervention to help Assad's opponents faced a backsliding defeat.

It was at this time that the Islamic State emerged from Syria and seized large swaths of territory in both Syria and Iraq. Its leader also calls himself the Caliph, which is the title of the supreme ruler of the Arab Empire in history. It is possible that such a previously unheard of organization, which has grown overnight, has been helped by powerful foreign aid.
Moreover, the rise of the Islamic State provides a very good excuse for the United States to re-engage in the region. So, in the name of fighting the Islamic State, the United States began openly supporting its proxy Kurds and sending troops into Syria.

Unlike Al Qaeda and other extremist groups, whose main purpose is to oppose the United States and Israel, the Islamic State almost never carries out attacks against the United States and Israel. Moreover, unlike ordinary terrorist groups, which mainly fight guerrilla warfare, they establish political power in the areas they occupy, collect taxes, and rule as a state. But taxes alone cannot pay for the war. As a result, the Islamic State also extracts oil and sells it at low prices as its main source of income. Among the countries buying Islamic State oil is the United States.

Of course, when the Islamic State finished its propaganda videos, the United States, along with Russia and Iran, turned around and fought a war. Moreover, the preparations for the war were completed shortly before the re-election of the president. The leader of the Islamic State was killed by American special forces, so the timing was perfect.

The purges of third countries take place at the right time, at any right time, in accordance with the needs of the Americans. While this is conspiratorial, something similar has followed an almost identical pattern in America's war on drugs, which has been going on for years. On the one hand, the U.S. Bureau of Drugs and Explosives is dedicated to fighting drug trafficking organizations in South America. On the other hand, the United States is supporting them in South America as a source of its own funding.

Although the Islamic State has been eliminated as a state entity in the Middle East, its organization still exists and has franchise-like affiliates around the world. This time, the claim of responsibility for the terrorist attack in Moscow was made by the Islamic State of Flo Shan Province. If you have a good understanding of Chinese history, you will be familiar with the name Flo Mountain, which is the name of Central Asia in the Tang Dynasty.
So, after the Islamic State was eliminated, the terrorists surrendered to Kurdish forces supported by the United States and entered Central Asia through Kurdish territory. Today, they have grown within Afghanistan and become a major force challenging the Taliban regime. The Kurds and the Islamic State have a blood feud. Why is it possible to let these people live and provide access? It is doubtful that the United States is operating in any of them.

Moreover, throughout the history of the Islamic State and its affiliates, apart from terrorist attacks, their targets have been less against the United States and Israel than against America's enemies, such as the Syrian government, Iran, Russia, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. So, overall, the Islamic State's background is pretty dubious. So even if the Islamic State was behind the attack, many Western intelligence agencies are suspected of involvement.