股市真相：政府、国企与散户的博弈

今天是节后第一个工作日，估计很多人心里想的并不是工作，而是节后第一个交易日。9月末，中国政府出台被称为“强刺激”的经济救市政策，股市却出现了暴涨，这让很多人措手不及。于是，很多人，特别是90后、00后的新股民，开始在长假期间筹措资金，准备在今天加入股市。之前股市长期低迷，10年来一直在3000点上下震荡。有人分析认为，原因之一是新一代年轻人基本不炒股，没有新鲜“韭菜”入场。这一次令人眼花缭乱的暴涨，终于将这一代人卷入了股市这个“绞肉机”。市场瞬息万变，能否赚到钱也难以一概而论。但这并不意味着不能从中获利，只是首先需要对股市有一个较为清晰的认识。

首先，中国的股市是用来做什么的？股市是一个融资的平台，企业通过发行股票出让部分所有权，从市场上获得资金。这种方式获得的资金是无需偿还的，区别于银行的贷款。这一过程一般在一级市场上完成，之后是大众广泛参与的二级市场。一级市场的交易逻辑是，既然股份代表所有权，那么股东就有权利分享企业的盈利。因此，股票也是企业分配盈利的凭证，可以产生股息。在二级市场上，股票的交易则是将未来可能产生的股息收入折现到当下，由市场产生一个交易价格。但现实中，A股中的中国股票大多不分红或很少分红，因此这种正常的股票定价模式并不适用。剩下的就是炒作和赌博了，类似于赌场的博大小。因此，老股民中流传着股市就是赌场的说法，因为股票的涨跌并没有合理的依据。有时候甚至近乎恶搞，比如2016年川普爆冷击败希拉里和今年8月川普竞选集会上意外从刺杀中幸存后，A股中一个名为川大智胜的股票都出现暴涨。

那么，既然A股的功能不正常，其真正的目的又是什么呢？这要追溯到A股建立之初，即改革开放初期。改革开放前，中国实行的是计划经济，工厂企业都是国有的。在长期的计划经济下，这些国有企业经营不善。因此，当时的政府看中了股市的融资功能，让这些经营不善的国有企业通过发行股票直接从民众手中融资，解决困境，因为上面说了，这样融到的钱区别于银行贷款，不用还，不会产生坏账拖累银行。这种方式在苏联解体和东欧剧变后，原社会主义阵营的国家也经历过类似的阶段，不过他们的目的是将国企彻底私有化。在这些国家的国有企业私有化的过程中，确实存在相当大的机会。但是，与俄罗斯和东欧前社会主义国家不同，中国的改革开放采取了渐进方式，仍保留着庞大的国企。因此，股市的第二个主要功能，即公平公正的股权交易市场，迟迟未能正常发挥作用。A股长期成为国有企业的“提款机”。这也是A股很难上涨的主要原因。

这次股市上涨的逻辑其实没有太大的变化，即由于经济下行，各地财政出现困难，需要推高股市吸引新的投资者入场。各地方政府可以通过手中掌握的国有企业上市公司，在股市套现以弥补财政亏空。股市的目的是让你掏钱，而非让你赚钱。如果你自信自己足够聪明，不妨一试。但概率告诉我们，真正能从股市中赚到钱的人是极少数的，对于普通股民来说，这个概率是极其不利的。

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Today is the first working day after the holiday, it is estimated that many people are not thinking about work, but the first trading day after the holiday. Many people were caught off guard when the Chinese stock market soared in late September after the government announced a stimulus package to prop up the economy. As a result, many people, especially new investors born after 1990 and 00, began to raise funds during the long holiday, ready to join the stock market today. The stock market had been in a prolonged slump, oscillating around 3,000 points for a decade. Some analysts believe that one of the reasons is that the new generation of young people basically do not invest in stocks, and there is no fresh "leek" admission. This dizzying surge finally caught this generation in the "meat grinder" of the stock market. The market changes rapidly, and it is difficult to generalize about whether you can make money. But that doesn't mean you can't profit from it, just that you need to have a clearer understanding of the stock market first.

First, what is China's stock market for? The stock market is a platform for financing, and enterprises can obtain funds from the market by issuing shares to transfer part of their ownership. Funds obtained in this way do not need to be repaid, unlike loans from banks. This process is generally completed in the primary market, followed by a secondary market with extensive mass participation. The logic of trading in the primary market is that since shares represent ownership, shareholders have a right to share in the profits of the business. Therefore, shares are also vouchers for the distribution of profits by enterprises and can generate dividends. In the secondary market, stocks are traded by discounting the dividend income that may be generated in the future into the present, and the market generates a trading price. But in reality, most Chinese stocks in A-shares pay little or no dividend, so this normal stock pricing model does not apply. The rest is hype and gambling, similar to the big and small casinos. As a result, there is a saying among old investors that the stock market is a casino, because there is no rational basis for the rise and fall of stocks. Sometimes even bordering on parody, for example, after Trump's shock defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Trump's unexpected survival from an assassination attempt at A campaign rally in August this year, A stock named Sichuan Great Wisdom rose sharply.

So, since the A-share function is abnormal, what is its real purpose? This goes back to the beginning of the establishment of A-shares, that is, the early days of reform and opening up. Before the reform and opening up, China practiced a planned economy and its factories and enterprises were all state-owned. These state-owned enterprises have been badly run under a long-term planned economy. Therefore, the government at that time focused on the financing function of the stock market and let these poorly operated state-owned enterprises raise money directly from the people through issuing shares to solve their difficulties, because as mentioned above, the money raised in this way is different from bank loans, and it does not need to be repaid, and will not produce bad debts to drag down the bank. The former communist bloc countries went through a similar phase after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the upheavals in Eastern Europe, but their aim was to privatize state-owned enterprises completely. There is indeed considerable opportunity in the process of privatization of state-owned enterprises in these countries. However, unlike Russia and the former communist countries of Eastern Europe, China has adopted a gradual approach to reform and opening up, and still retains huge state-owned enterprises. As a result, the second main function of the stock market, the fair and just equity trading market, has been delayed in its normal functioning. A-shares have long been the "cash machine" of state-owned enterprises. This is also the main reason why it is difficult for A shares to rise.

The logic of the stock market rally has not changed much this time, that is, due to the economic downturn, local fiscal difficulties, the need to push up the stock market to attract new investors. Local governments can make up the shortfall by cashing in on the stock market through the listing of state-owned enterprises in their hands. The purpose of the stock market is to get you to spend money, not to make money. If you're confident you're smart enough, give it a try. But the probability tells us that there are very few people who can really make money from the stock market, and for ordinary investors, this probability is extremely unfavorable.