BTC/BTCUSD Outlook for Week of September 09, 2017

An introduction to my Multiple-Timeframe and Technical Analysis based trading approach. I use similar variations of this method to trade forex, equity and metals markets using trend following.

The Trend Is Your Friend

The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.
-- Jack D. Schwager in their book Technical Analysis

I always start with the longest timeframe, because you always want to trade with the strongest and longest lasting trend.

Weekly Timeframe

In the Weekly chart below you can see that the overall trend is still up.

The price is currently sitting just below the 8 period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) but above the 21 period EMA.

This has me taking new long positions tactically like a sniper, but watching for price weakness.

The previous candle stick was a Doji with large upper and lower wicks, which means there was indecision but the current price being above the Doji's body is constructive to price moving higher.

Daily Timeframe

In the chart below you can see price is trending down and near the point of hitting the support for the most recent uptrend.

The intersection of these two trends forms a wedge pattern. This pattern is called the Falling Wedge Pattern and is often a price reversal pattern.

The price is below the 8, 21 and 50 period EMAs which means the price is in a confirmed downtrend.

Hourly Timeframe

Trading decision as always made based on the trend in the shortest trend. Decisions always make sure they line up with the longer term trends.

In the chart below you can see price is above the 8 and 21 period EMAs but below the 50 period EMA and in a downtrend.

However, price is nearing a congestion point between the resistance points of two trendlines. At this intersection point, price will either move higher or lower.

My Outlook

Because the longer term trend is an uptrend and the current chart pattern is a reversal pattern that would make the price reverse higher, my bias is to be long here.

Full Disclosure: I've taken off my BTCUSD and BTCUSDT hedges and have new longs I've initiated around $3700 with a risk of $3400 and target upside of $4300+