Vlog #44: Steem thoughts, supply and demand, earning steem is harder and communities.
Earning steem tokens through blogging is getting harder. It does not really matter whether the Steemprice goes up or down, it's simply more users trying to earn Steem from a fixed reward pool.
Early bloggers are like the early miners of Bitcoin. They earned relatively easy STEEM. It's first adopter advantage.
I think the amount that most early bloggers managed to gather (including myself) through blogging early is around 10-12K Steem.
Trying to earn 10K Steem today through blogging today is much harder.
I can only see a black swan moment stopping the point where demand exceeds supply.
A Steem token is very desirable because it gives you influence on the platform and better curation rewards.
Something that's desirable is something most people want to keep and treasure.
Therefore I believe that when users earn steem tokens today through blogging it's less likely they will sell it. And even if they do, because the amount of earned STEEM is a lot less than before it can't create much selling pressure on the markets.
Selling pressure can only come from bigger accounts and this is getting less every week by looking at the power down statistics.
Given enough time, I can only see a black swan moment stopping the point where demand exceeds supply and the price will slowly rise.
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Really really great summary of what's going on, I think. I listened to your vlog twice to absorb the info. My artist-brain works differently so I appreciate your sane, sharp analysis...I'd never think of stuff like that. Thanks bro @exyle !
Thank you for saying that man! really!
I remember when @Craig-Grant made that trade you referenced, and it's interesting that you mentioned it because I had a case of deja vu when watching his video yesterday. It just feels like the price is about to rise. Also, the total market cap (all coins) is under $100B as of now I believe and Steem is holding very strong compared to just a few days ago...great post as always.
Thanks, man. And, yes, that trade was awesome.
I'm glad you brought up communities again b/c I think we'll start to see this take effect pretty soon. It will make Steemit much more personal, enabling like minded people to share ideas and allow users with specific interests to find each other much easier. The Steemit forums (chainbb) I believe will also become much more important and popular as the community continues to grow.
The @craig-grant move is very interesting, as I agree, he has an extremely good feel and his track record really speaks for it's self. Great post as always! Have a great day! :)
The grind is definitely harder than before but on the other hand, I think it forces people who initially only thought of earning a lot of easy money to add more valuable posts and put more effort in it. So eventually also with the award pool being divided amongst more users, the users who will take time to go trough the grind willl stay and this platform will thus stay valuable with quality posts in the end.
I feel like we are reaching the end of the "cheap Steem" era. Sure, $2 Steem is expensive compared to the $0.10 steems of the old days. But with all the growth, the shift towards long-term holding of tokens, the upcoming community features... I'm no expert, but it feels like we will be seeing the $5 or even $10 Steem within the next year and then it'll be extremely difficult to earn lots of SP purely through blogging. Now is the time to invest, IMO.
What people have earned in the past seems to be totally unreachable as steem is today. I don't think the hard fork has worked out like people had hoped. People now seem very guarded about upvoting now most of the people only have about 10 votes a day
Thanks for your thoughts
I think this is true for some. People will think twice before upvoting a post. It must be of good value so I guess it isn't really a problem I think it is better for the platform to have upvoted posts of more value.
it might be harder to earn Steem, but Steem price in BTC or USD will raise only based on number of bloggers and readers of steemit.com. So everyone who blogs today is early adopter in compare to tomorrow and he/she can get bigger value back (BTC/USD) than before.
That's an interesting way of looking at it. And I agree. Even now everyone is still an early adopter.
as long as s/he keep holding earned Steem
Great analysis @exyle, very reasonable and probably will come true.
One thing that concerns me about STEEM is the globalization process. To achieve it's purpouse, steemit has to find a way to move tokens to other languages communities. I say that because as it is today, writing a non-english post is not productive if you plan to maximaze your efforts since non-english speakers do not have enougth SP to "give" a decent reward. On the other hand, having only english posts is a entry barrier for many people around the world.
Let's see what happens.
You have done justice to this topic. Yes getting stem reward this days is very difficult, some people are wondering what is going on but your explanation on the subject gives a clue of the challenges. One have to work extra hard and also to be patient, is not like in those days that people are reworded big for small effort. When more people are sharing something, the quantity gotten will be small. Good article. Keep it coming.
The harder it becomes to get token through blogging, the more valuable the token becomes and the higher the price. Hardfork 20 is just going to happen at the best time. Now is a good time to buy more Steem and power up.